General analysis AUDUSD for 28.03.2022

Current Dynamics

Scott Morrsinson, Australia's Prime Minister, announced new investments in infrastructure projects. It is expected that the Australian government will also announce a cut of gasoline excise duty by 10-20 cents per liter.
The forecasters in Australia again declare dangerous for life flash floods which can happen in the northeast of New South Wales and in the southeast of Queensland. At the same time the prime minister of Australia Scott Morrison has declared that New Southern Wales will receive 3.3 billion dollars for infrastructure projects. So it is planned that 1 billion dollars will be invested to modernize high-speed railroad, but along with high-speed lines will be modernized lines for cargo transportation.
At the same time the growth in the oil market forces the Australian government to look for ways to reduce gasoline prices in the country. It is planned that on March 29 will be announced to reduce gasoline excise taxes by 10-20 cents, but according to statements NRMA ("National Roads and Motorists Association of Australia") in case oil prices continue to rise the price for the end consumer may not change, because gasoline prices in Australia are directly dependent on world oil prices. It is also worth to mention that the excise tax on gasoline in Australia is a national tax, the funds from which are spent on construction and repair of roads.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical instability in Ukraine, the Australian government has imposed a ban on alumina and aluminum exports to Russia. Aluminum production requires a lot of electricity, but in spite of the deficit in the market, with current prices for energy carrier not every country is ready to engage in its production.
It is also worth to note the mixed data coming from Australia regarding the pandemic coronavirus. While New South Wales has seen a decline in new infections, some regions and cities, such as Victoria and Queensland, have seen an increase in the number of people infected.

The U.S. initial jobless claims data came in better than analysts' expectations at 187K claims instead of 212K, but the released number of outstanding housing market transactions in February came in at 4.1% down from the expected 1% increase.
Tomorrow at 2:30(GMT+2) Australian retail sales data for February is expected to be released. Market participants expect the index to rise by 1%. Later the same day, at 16:00 (GMT+2) data on open jobs in the U.S. labor market for February will be released.

Support and resistance levels.

The currency pair AUD/USD opened with a gap downward, around the local lows of Friday, after which it went upward and made new local highs. The instrument is trading in a narrow price range above the Fibonacci 100 level. The current trend is upward. The RSI oscillator is below the 70 level.

• Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7440, 0.7375, 0.7335, 0.7230, 0.7165
• Resistance levels: 0.7550, 0.7610, 0.7660

Trading scenarios

• Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 0.7610 and stop-loss at 0.7490. Period of realization: 2-4 days
• Short positions may be opened below the level of 0.7490 with target 0.7375 and stop-loss 0.7550 Period of realization: 2-4 days