General analysis Brent for 05.04.2022

Current Dynamics.

Russian oil imports to the U.S. increase by 43%. The number of oil and gas plots in the world decreased in March. Saudi Arabia increases oil prices in May.

April 22 is the date set by the Treasury Department by which all Russian oil transactions in the U.S. must be completed. However, between March 19 and 25, oil supplies from Russia increased by 43% to 100,000 bpd. At the same time, the Biden administration announced the largest oil release from the strategic reserves for the past 50 years in the amount of 180 million barrels of oil. In May, the U.S. Department of Energy plans to sell the first 20 million barrels of oil.

Meanwhile, in Brazil Adriano Pires refused to become director of the state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro because of personal circumstances.

However, it is worth noting that the number of drilling plots in Latin America increased by 7 units last month. Along with that the total number of drilling plots in the world decreased by 8 for the first time in 11 months. Meanwhile, the number of oil and gas plots in the US increased by 25 in the month, but the number of plots in Europe decreased by 24 to 78, one of the worst numbers in 4 years.

In the Middle East, Iraq recorded a net income of $11.07 billion in March, the highest since 1972. It is also worth noting that Iran recorded an average gasoline consumption of 112 million liters per day during the two weeks of holidays, which is 22% higher than the same period last year. Tehran also recorded a 98% increase in truck transit shipments in March.

At the same time Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, increased oil prices in May for customers from all regions. The minimum premium increase for U.S. customers will be $2.2 and for Asian customers $2.7. Worth to mention an increase of fuel prices in South Korea in March, gasoline prices increasing by 27.4%, diesel prices increasing by 37.9%, and kerosene prices increasing by 47.1%.

The American Petroleum Institute will publish its weekly crude stockpile data today at 22:30 (GMT+2). Experts forecast a 1.558M decrease in inventories.

Support and resistance levels.

Brent crude oil prices pushed back from the 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level. The current trend is upward. The RSI oscillator has crossed the 50 level from top to bottom.

• Support levels: 104.15,101.30, 95.85
• Resistance levels: 131.00, 122.70, 117.70, 113.50 109.30,

Trading scenarios

• Long positions can be opened from the current level with a target of 113.50 and a stop loss of 104.15. Implementation period: 1-3 days
• Short positions can be opened below the level of 101.30 with a target of 95.85 and stop loss of 104.15. Implementation period: 1-3 days