Fundamental analysis of WTI

Brent crude oil prices will rise for the first time this year, thanks to a significant reduction in oil inventories and OPEC+ production cuts. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures remained relatively flat on the daily chart, but concerns over rising interest rates dampened the overall market sentiment. Nevertheless, both benchmarks rose slightly on Thursday and closed with a one-month gain of more than 2%. 

 Markets are increasingly concerned about supply shortages, especially after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report showing a significant 9.6 million barrel decline in oil inventories. Q1 this year. The week ended June 23. That exceeded the drop by 1.8 million barrels. predicted analysts in a Reuters poll. In addition, Saudi Arabia's decision to cut production by 1 million barrels a day starting in July and OPEC+'s broad agreement to limit supply through 2024 have further increased the likelihood of a supply shortfall.

 Despite positive supply factors, market optimism was limited by concerns about a possible rate hike. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for tightening as better-than-expected U.S. economic data suggested that the Fed would continue its campaign to raise rates. Additional monetary policy to combat inflationary pressures. Concerns over rising interest rates could create a potential headwind for oil prices. 

 The market is eagerly awaiting the China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports, which will provide details on the country's manufacturing and service sector performance in June. The results of these reports may have a significant impact on oil demand in China in the second half of this year. In addition, the U.S. oil rig count released later today will be an important indicator of future oil supply. 

 China's activity data shows signs of stabilizing, giving hope that China's economic performance will improve after the difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the recovery is likely to be limited as the government's domestic demand growth plan has been disrupted. 

 Given supply and demand dynamics and concerns over rising interest rates, the short-term outlook for crude oil prices remains uncertain. Market participants will keep a close eye on the progress of OPEC+ production cuts, global economic indicators, and any changes in monetary policy. Oil prices could increase short-term volatility, so traders should exercise caution.

 In addition, tensions between the U.S. and China are escalating, raising concerns about the possibility that the world's largest consumer of commodities may reduce demand for energy. In addition, fears of interest rate hikes by major Western central banks and fears of recession in Europe put pressure on WTI crude oil prices. However, geopolitical concerns about Russia and OPEC+ promises to protect supply cuts keep oil buyers hopeful. Energy is still ahead as markets await the May U.S. Personal Consumer Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation index and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

Upper Bollinger Bands at 70.80, middle band at 69.10, lower band at 67.50. The indicator is pointing horizontally and the price range is widening. Price is rising in the upper range of the indicator.

Main scenario (BUY)

Recommended entry level: 71.00.

Take Profit: 72.80.

Stop Loss: 70.50.

Alternative scenario (SELL)

Recommended entry level: 68.80.

Take Profit: 67.70.

Stop loss: 69.50.