Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

The gold price has risen since Wednesday and is trading at 1930.00 as market participants are focused on the upcoming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index.
 
Many economic factors have weighed on gold's trajectory. The dollar index fell from recent highs and U.S. Treasury bond yields declined after the credit ratings of several mid-sized U.S. banks were downgraded. The decision sent shockwaves through the banking sector, as evidenced by the fall in US and European bank stocks. Italy's abrupt decision to impose an unexpected 40% tax on banks added to the industry's fears. In the U.S., the trade deficit narrowed significantly in June, largely due to lower capital purchases abroad, bringing imports to their lowest level in nearly 18 months. There are various rumors about interest rates. Key figures such as FRB Richmond President Thomas Barkin have emphasized the importance of carefully analyzing data before deciding whether to adjust interest rates. Sharing this view, Patrick Harker, President of FRB Philadelphia, stated that unless there are major changes in the economy, interest rates should be kept at the same level. 
 
Gold's position is also affected by concerns about the possibility of slowing economic growth in major global economies such as the UK and China, as well as geopolitical tensions related to relations between China, Japan and the US. With a falling dollar, inconsistent yields and the upcoming US CPI report, gold's near-term trajectory looks neutral. The financial community is also keeping a close eye on developments in emerging currency and equity markets, given the unprecedented divergence in global interest rates. In this regard, it is noteworthy that a Canadian mining company reported better-than-expected second quarter earnings, underscoring gold's continued appeal in these unpredictable times. 
Going forward, US inflation data will play an important role in determining gold's trajectory. If they show a decline in inflationary pressures, the XAU/USD rate could continue its bullish trajectory.
  
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The Alligator indicator indicates a bearish sentiment. The Alligator is hungry and its jaws are wide open, indicating that we are in a downtrend. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) Both are in the green zone, which is a bullish signal. This is a bullish divergence compared to the bearish signal from the Alligator. This suggests that while the overall trend may be bearish, we may be experiencing a short-term upward correction. With AO and AC in the green zone, this hints at a possible bullish momentum in the short term.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1938.00.
Take Profit: 1945.00.
Stop loss: 1934.00.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1923.00.
Take Profit: 1916.00.
Stop loss: 1926.00.