Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold prices reached two-week highs, helped primarily by a weaker US dollar and lower US Treasury yields, which increased investor interest in the base precious metal. Gold's rally comes amid growing expectations that key lessons from the Jackson Hole symposium, especially the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, will shed light on the future dynamics of interest rates. 
It is important to note that as US interest rates rise, gold becomes less attractive. Concerns about the direction of interest rates have intensified following the release of some disappointing global economic data, including a weak purchasing managers' index in August. In the US in particular, trade activity stagnated in August, becoming the weakest since February, reflecting weak demand in the services sector. Elsewhere, a cautious global economic picture is emerging despite repeated rate hikes by the Bank of England, expectations of a pause in rate hikes by the European Central Bank and a slowdown in the UK economy. As a result, speculation about the possible cessation of rate hikes in major economies, especially in the US and Europe, has increased the attractiveness of gold. 
In addition, optimism remains in the market due to growing expectations of improved diplomatic relations between the US and China. With the Chinese government playing an important role as one of the largest gold buyers in the world, this improved relationship could further stabilize the XAU/USD exchange rate. 
Despite the uptrend, the market remains cautious. Some upcoming data from the US and subsequent reactions may challenge this positive outlook, with President Jerome Powell's call for tighter monetary policy being a particularly important factor. There are clear signs that the US rate hike cycle is coming to an end, which could lead to further dollar weakness and an improved outlook for gold.
  
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The alligator jaws are currently wide open, indicating strong uptrend appetite. This suggests that momentum is directed upwards. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are currently in the gray zone, showing divergence. Divergence of these oscillators usually indicates a possible reversal or at least a slowdown in the current trend. However, it should be noted that without accompanying confirmation in the form of price action, relying on divergence alone can be misleading. Given the current momentum shown by the Alligator indicator, the XAU/USD pair may continue its uptrend. If the price breaks above the nearest resistance at 1922.00 and consolidates there.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1922.00.
Take Profit: 1931.00.
Stop loss: 1918.00.
 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1915.00.
Take Profit: 1906.00.
Stop loss: 1918.00.