Fundamental analysis of WTI

06.09.2023 12:06
장중
펀더멘털

WTI crude oil price is declining from its highs and is trading at 85.70.
Crude oil prices are experiencing significant volatility after reaching a high of 87.53. This variance is due to growing market concerns about a possible supply shortage. The basis of these concerns was the unexpected decision of Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend the voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of the year. The extension of the agreement by three months came as a surprise, as many expected it to last until October. 
This price hike by the two largest oil producing countries will certainly impact and boost global crude oil prices. It is expected that global demand for liquid hydrocarbons could exceed supply by around 3 million bpd in the next quarter, adding to concerns about existing supply. 
However, it is important to note that not all news supports the optimistic view. Recent data from China, the world's largest oil consumer, suggests a possible slowdown. Specifically, according to a report released on Tuesday, the pace of growth in China's service sector activity in August was the slowest in eight months. China's purchasing managers' index for the services sector fell to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July. As China is the world's largest oil importer, a slowdown in the Chinese economy could affect the growth trajectory of WTI. The US refinery maintenance season, which runs from September through October, may also put pressure on oil demand and limit oil price growth.
In the coming days, oil traders will keep an eye on the release of the US services PMI and crude oil inventories data for the week ended September.
Technical analysis and scenarios:


The Bollinger Bands are currently trending higher, indicating bullish momentum. However, the narrowing of the price range indicates that volatility is declining. The fact that price is retreating from the upper band and moving towards the middle band indicates a possible consolidation or even a short-term pullback. Price resisted at the upper levels of the Bollinger Bands and is now approaching the middle band. If price maintains its position above the middle band (85.30), we may see a bounce towards the upper resistance levels.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 86.00.
Take Profit: 86.50.
Stop Loss: 85.75.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 85.00.
Take Profit: 84.05.
Stop loss: 85.50.