Fundamental analysis of WTI

15.01.2024 10:25
장중
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The WTI crude oil market is currently in a difficult situation characterized by geopolitical tensions and supply issues. 
WTI crude oil traded near 72.90 in Asian trading on Monday, exacerbated by escalating conflict in the Middle East and potential disruptions to key sea lanes. Recent US and UK military action against Houthi targets in Yemen has worsened the situation in the country. In particular, the Houthis recently launched an anti-aircraft missile at the Raban Air Force base in the Red Sea, but it was intercepted without causing any damage. This development has caused concern among traders, especially because of its impact on goods traveling through the Strait of Hormuz and stability throughout the region. U.S. President Joe Biden heightened tensions by expressing concern about the war's impact on global oil markets. 
Moreover, the situation in Libya has exacerbated these concerns as protesters have threatened to shut down other oil and gas fields following the shutdown of the Sharara oil field. These actions reflect ongoing problems within the country, which could further exacerbate the global oil export situation. In the market, oil futures traded mixed. 
Little change occurred amid quiet trading conditions due in part to a holiday in the US. Markets are currently behaving cautiously, taking into account factors such as Saudi Arabia's February decision to cut the official purchase price of Asia Arabian Light crude and the risk of escalating military tensions. Analysts such as Goldman Sachs believe major disruptions, especially in key shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, will drive oil prices higher. However, traders are advised to be cautious as the uncertain situation and supply issues in the Middle East will cause the market to move quickly. Current prices reflect a combination of geopolitical and supply chain risks, so it is important to keep an eye on possible changes in price trends.


Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 73.50
Take Profit: 74.50
Stop Loss: 73.00
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 71.50
Take Profit: 70.10
Stop loss: 72.00