Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

18.01.2024 10:42
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Gold prices rose, rising to 2014.00 on Thursday. 
The rise came amid lower U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. However, gold prices are near five-week lows as hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and strong U.S. economic data have dampened expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut. Despite the recent rebound, the gold market is still in a challenging cycle. Investors are currently assessing the likelihood of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting scheduled for January 30-31, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a rate cut in March. 
Traders initially stayed long in December on expectations that the Fed would be dovish, but the Fed's outlook has since been downgraded. Markets are watching for economic data on the US labor market and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, which will explain the direction of monetary policy. The publication of these political and economic data will have a significant impact on gold prices. 
In general, gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, weak economic prospects in China, US interest rate policy and government bond yields. Traders are advised to pay close attention to these factors as they are very important for the short-term outlook of the gold market.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:


The alligator's jaw is wide open, the jaw (blue line) is above the lips and teeth (green and red lines), indicating a downtrend.This suggests that bearish momentum is strong. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the gray area, indicating divergence.This divergence suggests that the current trend is losing strength but does not provide a clear direction for further price movement.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 2020.00.
Take Profit: 2030.60.
Stop loss: 2015.00. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 2000.00.
Take Profit: 1993.00.
Stop loss: 2003.00.