EUR/USD, Technical Analysis – H1

The euro has not yet broken the downtrend against the dollar, but it has formed a significant potential reversal zone around 1.1450. If the bulls manage to (1) defend the support at 1.1430 and (2) consolidate above 1.1480, the reversal will be technically confirmed. However, the market may take a more complex path and trigger the upside move via a short squeeze. Therefore, traders positioning for an upward reversal must exercise extreme caution.

Key Levels:

□ 1.1430 – immediate support

□ 1.1440 – lower edge of reversal zone

□ 1.1450 – key potential reversal level

□ 1.1480 – confirmation level for bullish reversal

Primary Scenario:

Bounce from the 1.1430–1.1440 zone and subsequent rise toward 1.1480.

Alternative Scenario:

Breakdown below 1.1430 and decline toward 1.1400.

Analyst Commentary:

Trading against the prevailing trend is one of the most thankless tasks in trading. At the same time, the ability to identify a potential reversal in a timely manner remains critically important.