Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 03.11.2021

The Fed's monetary policy meeting will begin at 20:00 (GMT+2) today. The press conference is scheduled for 21:30 (GMT+2). Market participants are waiting for specific information on the monthly volume of QE cuts, as well as plans to tighten monetary policy.

EUR/USD is showing minimal strengthening today, but things may change quickly during the Fed press conference. If the regulator says it will cut monthly asset purchases by 15 billion or more, the pair will update local lows today. A hawkish commentary on monetary policy will lead to larger losses in the trading instrument.

GBP/USD on Wednesday won back the losses of the previous day. Strong macroeconomic reports from the UK supported the pair. The Composite PMI rose from 54.9 to 57.8 basis points in October, beating the positive forecast. The Services Business Activity Index rose from 55.4 to 59.1 basis points last month, beating the forecast by 9.1 points. Further dynamics depend on today's meeting of the Federal Reserve.

AUD/USD falls after the RBA meeting. The Australian economy has suffered significantly from a prolonged lockdown. The situation does not suppose a quick recovery of economic activity and cancellation of monetary stimulus, so comments of the regulator were extremely cautious. NZD/USD gained little thanks to an unexpectedly strong report on the New Zealand labor market. Both Pacific currencies were under pressure as investors abandoned risk in favor of the dollar. USD/CAD is getting stronger amid strengthening U.S. currency. Additional pressure on the CAD is coming from the oil prices decline.

Brent and WTI are declining for the second consecutive day. Today more pressure on the hydrocarbons market was contributed by the report of the U.S. Department of Energy, which showed weekly growth of commercial oil reserves by 3.291 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 2.16 million barrels and gasoline inventories were not significantly lower. Tomorrow will be a crucial day for the hydrocarbons market, as OPEC+ will meet on Thursday. Some countries participating in the pact admitted they could no longer increase production due to a lack of capacity. Saudi Arabia and Iraq, meanwhile, are prepared to fill in the gap and ramp up production further. OPEC+ officials remain silent.

Gold has lost substantially in value today. The XAU/USD is highly dependent on the outcome of the Fed meeting. If the regulator announces plans to make monetary policy adjustments for 2022, gold will fall below the 1700 level.