Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 06.12.2021
The US labor market data released last Friday formed short-term pressure on the dollar. The US economy created only 210 K non-farm jobs in November, while the forecast was 550 K. The initial market reaction was negative, which caused the USD to fall. At the same time, fundamentally, the dollar's position remains strong, so the U.S. currency quickly recovered. The unemployment rate in USA has fallen to 4.2%, with the economy recovering over 80% of the jobs lost due to COVID-19. The macroeconomic statistics allows the Fed to implement its monetary policy plans. Experts expect the regulator to raise rates by 25 basis points in June 2022 and by 50 points in November.
EUR/USD is showing a minimal decline on Monday. A downward revision of the Eurozone business activity index put pressure on EUR. Also a 6.9% drop in manufacturing orders in Germany in October is keeping the pair in negative zone today. At the same time some ECB officials appeared to be in favor of a monetary policy revision in favor of tightening, however Christine Lagarde disappointed investors by saying that inflation is going to fall soon and the central bank will not raise rates in 2022.
Friday's losses in the pound were also linked to a review of UK business activity data. GBP/USD is strengthening today, rebounding from 2021 lows. Positive data on British construction sector business activity also became the pair's growth driver. At the same time, the Bank of England's official Michael Saunders said that the main topic of the regulator's December meeting will be the discussion of the possible effects of the Omicron outbreak
AUD/USD and NZD/USD were both down significantly on Friday. The strong dollar, risk aversion and bad macro statistics from China formed a strong pressure on the Pacific currencies. The Canadian dollar also weakened against the U.S. currency on Friday. At the same time, the USD/CAD is expected to decline this week. The Canadian macrostatistics remains positive, especially the labor market. The meeting of the Bank of Canada will be held this week, with the condition of the Canadian economy allows to keep "hawkish" rhetoric at the moment.
Brent and WTI strengthened on Monday after news that Saudi Arabia will raise oil prices for the U.S. and Asia in january. Another boost to the hydrocarbons market is the stance of Iran's new conservative government on the nuclear deal. Negotiations have become very difficult with the arrival of the new government, which has already made some harsh demands on the other side.
The XAU/USD weakened on Monday amid a strengthening dollar. Friday's release of U.S. inflation data is a key event for the trading instrument.