Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 14.12.2021
14.12.2021 14:43
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On Monday, in the absence of significant macroeconomic releases, major instruments traded in a limited price range. U.S. Treasury yields moderately declined, but the dollar held in positive territory against major currencies. This week could be very volatile as five central banks will hold monetary policy meetings at once. Investizo believes that the divergence in the parameters of the monetary policy of different regulators may cause an excessive reaction of currency pairs to the results of the meetings. Moreover, the news background is saturated with the significant publications from the USA, Eurozone, UK, China, Australia and New Zealand. But nevertheless the key event will be the Fed meeting. Market participants are confident that the U.S. regulator will announce an acceleration of QE reduction, which is already taken into account by the market and is a pressure factor for the dollar.
EUR/USD continues to consolidate near the strong psychological level of 1.1300. The Euro's stability before the ECB meeting is more likely to be due to the Fed's predictability than to the positive outlook for the European Union economy. There is a small chance that the head of European Central Bank Christine Lagarde will listen to her colleagues' opinion and allow the revision of the policy. Previously, several authoritative officials of the ECB stated the need to curtail QE, against the background of rising price pressures in the region. In particular, member of the Governing Council of the ECB Isabella Schnabel said that the current policy of quantitative easing leads to a loss of control over inflation and increases the risk of financial instability. The ECB meeting starts at 14:45 (GMT+2) on Thursday.
The British pound edged slightly higher on Tuesday after the labor market statistics. Unemployment figures were no surprise, while employment growth was disappointing. At the same time, rising wages indicate that citizens are afraid to go out to work because of the pandemic. There has already been a fatal case of infection with the new Omicron strain in Great Britain. The Bank of England has a meeting scheduled for Thursday so information on the virus in the next 48 hours will be more important for the GBP/USD than consumer price and business activity statistics.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD lost ground amid falling investor interest in risky assets. At the same time the additional pressure on fundamentally strong CAD increased at the background of declining oil prices. It is also worth noting that a report on industrial production in China, which will be published on Wednesday at 04:00 (GMT+2), will have a moderate impact on Pacific zone currencies. Other important events this week include a speech by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a report on the Australian labor market.
Brent and WTI were moderately downbeat after the International Energy Agency cut its 2021-2022 demand forecast. Oil continues to hold quite high, considering the crisis situation. At the same time investors trust OPEC+ and are not ready to react sharply to the intermediate forecast.
XAU/USD continues to trade in a limited price range. Tomorrow's Fed meeting could be a driver for the metals market.
EUR/USD continues to consolidate near the strong psychological level of 1.1300. The Euro's stability before the ECB meeting is more likely to be due to the Fed's predictability than to the positive outlook for the European Union economy. There is a small chance that the head of European Central Bank Christine Lagarde will listen to her colleagues' opinion and allow the revision of the policy. Previously, several authoritative officials of the ECB stated the need to curtail QE, against the background of rising price pressures in the region. In particular, member of the Governing Council of the ECB Isabella Schnabel said that the current policy of quantitative easing leads to a loss of control over inflation and increases the risk of financial instability. The ECB meeting starts at 14:45 (GMT+2) on Thursday.
The British pound edged slightly higher on Tuesday after the labor market statistics. Unemployment figures were no surprise, while employment growth was disappointing. At the same time, rising wages indicate that citizens are afraid to go out to work because of the pandemic. There has already been a fatal case of infection with the new Omicron strain in Great Britain. The Bank of England has a meeting scheduled for Thursday so information on the virus in the next 48 hours will be more important for the GBP/USD than consumer price and business activity statistics.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD lost ground amid falling investor interest in risky assets. At the same time the additional pressure on fundamentally strong CAD increased at the background of declining oil prices. It is also worth noting that a report on industrial production in China, which will be published on Wednesday at 04:00 (GMT+2), will have a moderate impact on Pacific zone currencies. Other important events this week include a speech by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a report on the Australian labor market.
Brent and WTI were moderately downbeat after the International Energy Agency cut its 2021-2022 demand forecast. Oil continues to hold quite high, considering the crisis situation. At the same time investors trust OPEC+ and are not ready to react sharply to the intermediate forecast.
XAU/USD continues to trade in a limited price range. Tomorrow's Fed meeting could be a driver for the metals market.