General analysis USDCAD for 03.03.2022
03.03.2022 17:51
Недельный
Общий
Current Dynamics
Fed Chairman Powell said that despite strong growth in economic activity (5.5%) and a significant reduction in unemployment (unemployment fell to 4%), inflation risks in the US economy are increasing (CPI rose to 7.5%). The uncertainty caused by the invasion of Ukraine adds to the uncertainty in the global economy. The Federal Reserve chief also noted that the regulator will respond quickly to incoming data and changing outlooks. As a result, Powell notified Congress that he will propose a 25bp interest rate hike to the FOMC in March.
However, yesterday the Bank of Canada increased the interest rate by 25bp to 0.50%. In an accompanying statement, the Canadian regulator said that despite good economic growth (growth of 6.7% in the 4th quarter), poor harvests and rising transport costs have led to inflationary pressures (inflation rose to 5.1%). It is also worth noting that the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada intends to continue raising the key rate in 2022.
Oil stockpile data released on Wednesday pushed up WTI and Brent. US crude oil inventories fell by 2.597 million barrels. This will have a negative impact on inflation in both countries. This factor may force regulators to act more aggressively, as the papers also say.
Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2) the US jobless claims data will be released. Experts expect the unemployment rate to fall to 3.9%. Later in the day, at 17:00 (GMT+2) the Canadian business activity data will be released.
Support and resistance levels.
- Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2570,
- Resistance levels: 1.2645, 1.2705, 1.2766, 1.2841, 1.2964.
Trading scenarios
- Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2705 with a target of 1.2510 and a stop loss of 1.2766. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
- Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2510 with target of 1.2645 and stop-loss 1.2450. Implementation period: 2-4 days.