General analysis NZDUSD for 21.03.2022

Current Dynamics

On Monday morning the kiwi opened with a downward gap, but the news about New Zealand's trade balance brought the NZD/USD back to Friday's closing levels.
The Fed's decision to raise the interest rate by 25 bps, announced on Wednesday, led to the growth of the currency pair quotes. At the same time, the number of initial construction permits in the U.S. in February amounted to 1.859M, which is 0.009M more than experts' expectations; however secondary market housing sales equaled 6.02M while experts expected 6.10M, which equaled a 7.2% decrease in February sales. Meanwhile the US labor market indicators are good, with initial jobless claims at 214K, 6K less than analysts' expectations.
At the same time the published GDP data for New Zealand turned out worse, thus the Q4 GDP growth was 3.0% instead of the 3.2% which had been predicted by experts. Also worth mentioning is the trade balance shrinking by 385 million in February, while it decreased by 8.370 million for the year.
At the moment there are quarantine measures concerning pandemic COVID-19 in New Zealand. However, Minister of State Jacinda Ardenrn has announced that starting from April 12 Australian citizens will be able to visit New Zealand without any problems. Australian visitors make up 40% of the total number of tourists.

Today at 18:00 (GMT+2) the Fed Chairman, Mr. Powell, will give a speech. Later in the day at 23:45 (GMT+2), Westpac consumer sentiment data for the first quarter in New Zealand will be released.

Support and resistance levels.

The NZD/USD opened with a downward gap below the key Fibonacci 100 level at the opening of trading, but failed to lock lower and returned to a sideways trend above the Fibonacci 100 level. The current trend is upward. The RSI is trading upper. After approaching the level of 70, without fixing above, the oscillator started to go down to the level of 50.

• Support levels: 0.6890, 0.6805, 0.6752, 0.6710, 0.6667,0.6615,0.6530
• Resistance levels: 0.7115, 0.7050, 0.6925

Trading scenarios

• Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6925 with target of 0.7050 or 0.7115 and stop-loss 0.6890. Execution time: 2-4 days
• Short positions can be taken below the level of 0.6805 with a target of 0.6667 and stop-loss 0.6890 Execution time: 2-4 days