Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 14.04.2022
14.04.2022 14:25
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The US dollar is moderately lower against major currencies on Thursday ahead of the release of US retail sales and labor market statistics. Given rising inflation and rising wages, Investizo suggests that the final data will reflect an acceleration in spending. If spending excluding fuel and cars exceeds expectations, the dollar will continue to strengthen. It should also be remembered that steady support for the US currency has been built on the back of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy.
The ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting today. Despite high inflation, the regulator is unlikely to raise the rate. So far, the European central bank has announced its intention to roll back QE and only then start raising rates. However, inflation continues to rise and officials have to choose between immediately halting asset purchases or a gradual unwinding of QE. If the ECB remains ultra-cautious then EUR/USD will continue to move in a moderate downtrend. Given the conflict in Ukraine and the risks associated with it, Investizo predicts a tightening of monetary policy in the Eurozone no earlier than the end of QE3 this year.
GBP/USD strengthened significantly yesterday amid rising consumer price index as well as producer purchasing prices. Such indicators are a signal to the Bank of England for another round of monetary tightening. At the same time, we should take into account the fact that most central banks are on a tightening path, therefore Investizo recommends taking long positions in currencies with a less aggressive central bank policy, such as buying GBP/JPY.
The NZD/USD is recovering on Thursday after a strong fall the day before. Despite New Zealand's interest rate hike, the pair fell immediately after the decision was published. The rate hike was earlier than predicted by the regulator so investors took the move as a slowdown in monetary policy normalization procedure USD/CAD has strengthened significantly after a 50 basis point rate hike earlier this week. The Canadian central bank governor said he was ready to take decisive action to normalise inflation indicators.
Brent and WTI are rising despite an increase in US crude stocks. At the same time, fuel stocks continue to fall and prices are rising. Sanctions against Russia's energy sector, supply chain disruption, and OPEC forecasts provide medium-term support for the hydrocarbon market.
XAU/USD is strengthening this week amid high inflationary pressures in leading economies. The pair broke through resistance at 1960 and is now testing strong resistance at 1975, a break of which will push it up towards the 1995-2000 range.
The ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting today. Despite high inflation, the regulator is unlikely to raise the rate. So far, the European central bank has announced its intention to roll back QE and only then start raising rates. However, inflation continues to rise and officials have to choose between immediately halting asset purchases or a gradual unwinding of QE. If the ECB remains ultra-cautious then EUR/USD will continue to move in a moderate downtrend. Given the conflict in Ukraine and the risks associated with it, Investizo predicts a tightening of monetary policy in the Eurozone no earlier than the end of QE3 this year.
GBP/USD strengthened significantly yesterday amid rising consumer price index as well as producer purchasing prices. Such indicators are a signal to the Bank of England for another round of monetary tightening. At the same time, we should take into account the fact that most central banks are on a tightening path, therefore Investizo recommends taking long positions in currencies with a less aggressive central bank policy, such as buying GBP/JPY.
The NZD/USD is recovering on Thursday after a strong fall the day before. Despite New Zealand's interest rate hike, the pair fell immediately after the decision was published. The rate hike was earlier than predicted by the regulator so investors took the move as a slowdown in monetary policy normalization procedure USD/CAD has strengthened significantly after a 50 basis point rate hike earlier this week. The Canadian central bank governor said he was ready to take decisive action to normalise inflation indicators.
Brent and WTI are rising despite an increase in US crude stocks. At the same time, fuel stocks continue to fall and prices are rising. Sanctions against Russia's energy sector, supply chain disruption, and OPEC forecasts provide medium-term support for the hydrocarbon market.
XAU/USD is strengthening this week amid high inflationary pressures in leading economies. The pair broke through resistance at 1960 and is now testing strong resistance at 1975, a break of which will push it up towards the 1995-2000 range.