Fundamental analysis of WTI

Oil prices remained stable on Friday, trading at 82.35 as market participants assessed a mix of optimistic and cautious signals from the global economy. Traders are closely watching the balance between OPEC's optimistic outlook for oil demand and the uncertainty caused by China's economic data. OPEC remains optimistic, forecasting oil demand growth of 2.44 million bpd in 2023 and 2.25 million bpd in 2024, mainly due to an increase In 2024, strong economic growth is expected, especially in China. This implies an imminent increase in oil consumption. 
 

On the contrary, the latest data from China - the world's largest oil consumer - raises concerns. For example, China's crude oil imports in July fell 18.8% from the previous month, recording the lowest daily level since January. In addition, consumer prices in China have entered a period of declining inflation: the consumer price index in July fell 0.3% year-on-year, while the producer price index fell to 4.4% year-on-year. This data casts doubt on future fuel demand in China. However, oil supply also has its positive signals. Continued production cuts in leading countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as concerns over possible disruptions to Russian oil supplies due to the Russia-Ukraine situation, have pushed gasoline prices higher. In particular, Saudi Arabia reported a reduction in oil production and announced the extension of voluntary oil production cuts until September. At the same time, Russia is expected to reduce oil exports at the end of the month. In addition, the oil conjuncture may be influenced by geopolitical dynamics. U.S. President Joe Biden's recent executive order to restrict new U.S. investments in China in the area of sensitive technologies, combined with escalating trade tensions between the two economic giants, could weaken oil's upward trajectory. 
 
Overall, while the potential for a supply shortage may not be as pronounced as OPEC estimates, it could still push oil prices above 90 USD in the second half of 2023. With the WTI crude oil price currently trading at 82.35, the interaction between supply and demand will be a key factor in determining the direction of oil prices going forward. Therefore, market participants should be cautious and prepare for possible uptrends.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

WTI crude oil price is currently trading at 82.35 and is comfortably positioned between the support levels of 81.50, 80.50, 79.50 and resistance levels of 90.00, 85.00, 83.00. The Bollinger Bands show that the price is trading flat in the lower range and is approaching its middle band (82.60). The width of the bands suggests some volatility and the upward trajectory of the indicator suggests the potential for an upward move.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 83.00.
Take Profit: 85.00.
Stop loss: 81.50.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 81.50.
Take Profit: 80.50.
Stop loss: 82.00.