General analysis EURUSD for 28.09.2021
Current dynamics
At the beginning of the current week, the U.S. dollar is strengthening against the single European currency. Government bond yields have reached 1.5%, which is the main reason for the demand for USD from investors. At the same time, the impact of macroeconomic statistics is weakening, as attention will be paid to the US government debt negotiations. Market participants are not considering a government shutdown, although economists admit the first default in US history.
At the same time, the ECB has reduced the volume of QE within the framework of the PEPP, but the divergence in the parameters of the US and eurozone monetary policy makes the dollar a more interesting currency for investment. In addition, German elections and uncertainty over the country's future political and economic course put additional pressure on the pair.
Today at 14:00 (GMT+2) ECB head Christine Lagarde will give a speech. U.S. trade balance statistics will be released at 14:30 (GMT+2). At 16:00 (GMT+2), consumer confidence data will be released. Fed Chair Powell will also give a speech at 16:00 (GMT+2). However, the market dynamics depend on the situation with the U.S. government debt and comments of the politicians.
Support and resistance levels
On the 4h chart, the instrument is testing the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands, which acts as the key resistance level. The indicator turns downward and the price range has widened, indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, holding a sell signal. Stochastic does not give a clear signal to enter the market.
Support levels: 1.1622, 1.1645, 1.1660, 1.1675.
Resistance levels: 1.1700, 1.1715, 1.1735, 1.1755, 1.1780, 1.1800.
Trading scenarios
It is possible to open short positions at the current price with a target of 1.1600 and a stop loss at 1.1705. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Long positions should be opened above the level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1750 and a stop-loss at the level of 1.1680. Implementation period: 1-2 days.