General analysis AUDUSD for 04.04.2022
Current Dynamics
Australia's new government budget for 2022 includes a cut in fuel excise, a one-time payment and an increase in the country's net debt. Experts predict a decrease of prices of the housing.
The Australian government is taking steps to reduce inflation by cutting the excise tax on gasoline in the country from 44.2 cents per liter to 22.1. Also included in the budget is a one-time payment of 420 dollars to residents whose yearly income is less than 126,000 dollars. However, the budget deficit will increase by $78 million, amounting to 3.4% of GDP, and the net debt will amount to $714.9 billion, or 31.1% of GDP. Inflation in Australia is currently at 3.5%. However, it is worth noting that housing prices in Australia increased by 18.1% in the last year, but experts predict a 5.2% decrease of prices this year on the back of rising interest rates. At the moment, there is already a significant slowdown in housing prices, so for the first 3 months of 2021 in Sydney prices increased by 9.3%, and this year by 0.3%, in Melbourne during the same period in 2021, increased by 5.8%, and this year by 0.1%.
The number of building permits in Australia increased by 43.5% in February, it is worth noting that in January this figure decreased by 27.1% Lending to the private sector in Australia increased by 0.6% in February. However, housing loans decreased by 4.7% and real estate investment decreased by 1.8%. Concomitantly, AIG Manufacturing activity index rose to 55.7 (from 53.2 a month earlier). MI inflation rose 0.8% MoM and retail sales rose 1.8% MoM.
Tomorrow at 6:30(GMT+2) the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision will be released. The regulator is expected to leave the rate unchanged at 0.1%. Later the same day at 16:00(GMT+2), the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for March is expected to be released. The index is expected to reach 58.0
Support and resistance levels. 
AUD/USD currency pair is consolidating in a wide sideways trend. Consolidation is above the 76.4 Fibonacci level. RSI oscillator has crossed the 50 level from bottom to top.
- Support levels: 0.7420, 0.7340, 0.7274, 0.7207, 0.7125, 0.6993.
- Resistance levels: 0.7555, 0.7905
Trading scenarios
- Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target of 0.7420 and stop-loss 0.7555. Implementation period: 2-4 days
- Long positions may be opened above the level of 0.7555 with target 0.7905 and stop-loss 0.7420. Implementation period: 2-4 days