General analysis USDCAD for 15.04.2022
Current Dynamics
The Bank of Canada increased its key interest rate on 0.5% to 1%, which is the fastest rate increase in the last 20 years. The regulator also announced an end to reinvestment and the beginning of quantitative tightening (QT).
The Bank of Canada increased its key interest rate on 0.5% to 1% because of high inflation at 5.7%, the highest in 30 years. Also, from the press release the regulator, concludes that because of growing demand in the economy while keeping inflation above the 2% target, the Governing Council thinks it is necessary to continue increasing interest rates. In addition to increasing interest rates, the regulator plans to proceed with quantitative tightening starting April 25, QT volumes to be released later. The regulator notes that inflation is driven by rising energy and food prices. So for February 2022, the price of gasoline increased by 32.3% compared to February 2021, food costs increased by 7.4%, and housing costs increased by 6.6%
The Bank of Canada expects the economy to grow by 4.25% this year, then slow to 3.25% in 2023 and 2.25% in 2024. It also forecasts inflation to average 6% in the first half of 2022 and remain well above its target range through the year. In the second half of 2023, inflation is expected to fall to about 2.5% and return to the target level of 2% in 2024.
Canadian manufacturing sales increased by 4.2% in February, better than experts' expectation of 3.6%. However, volume of wholesale sales decreased by 0.4% instead of the expected increase of 0.9%.
U.S. industrial production data will be released at 15:15(GMT+2) today.
Support and resistance levels. 
USD/CAD corrected to the 50.0 Fibonacci level, after which the quotes returned to the growth with the further consolidation near the 76.4 Fibonacci level. The RSI oscillator crossed the 50 level from the bottom to top.
- Support levels: 1.2570, 1.2540, 1.2507, 1.2468, 1.2403
- Resistance levels: 1.2676, 1.2612
Trading scenarios
- Long positions may be opened from the current level with target 1.2676 and stop-loss 1.2570 Implementation period: 2-4 days
- Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2570 with target 1.2507 and stop-loss 1.2612 Implementation period: 2-4 days