Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD has declined this week and is trading at 1.08130. 
EUR/USD dynamics will likely depend on key economic data and central bank statements next week. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, in her speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, emphasized the long-term commitment to curbing inflation. Her view is reinforced by the need for central banks to maintain economic stability and protect prices. The aim is to keep interest rates capped for a long time to achieve the ECB's 2% inflation target over the medium term. Bank of Latvia President Martins Kazaks warned against raising interest rates too soon, citing potential risks to the economy. 

On the US side, also at this symposium, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his intention to continue raising interest rates based on economic data. His view is supported by strong economic growth and a tight labor market, suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes if economic data remains encouraging. In contrast, FRB Philadelphia President Patrick Harker expressed skepticism about the need for further rate hikes in the near term and favored a wait-and-see stance. And FRB Cleveland President Loretta Mester warned that the current rates may not be enough to achieve the inflation target. 
There is an important day coming up that could affect the pair's course. In addition to German retail sales, European investors are eagerly awaiting inflation data for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. The ECB is also due to release its meeting minutes. In the US, the focus will be on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, preliminary US GDP, weekly jobless claims and Non-Farm Payrolls, which is expected to be released later this week as it could have a significant impact on market sentiment.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

The Stochastic oscillator is registering a value of 53.5447 with a signal at 47.6736. This indicates neutral momentum with no strong overbought or oversold signs. The current price is moving in the lower range of the Bollinger Bands. The upper band is at 1.08820, the middle band is at 1.08250 and the lower band is at 1.07650. If the indicator is pointing downwards and the price is fluctuating in the lower band, it indicates bearish pressure and the possibility of further decline. The MACD line (-0.001899) is just above its signal line (-0.002131), indicating a slight bullish divergence, albeit in bearish territory. This gives a mixed signal. Given the bearish bias of the Bollinger Bands and the fact that price remains in a lower range, as well as the small bullish MACD divergence, EUR/USD may experience limited upside before a possible resumption of the bearish trend.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.07640.
Take Profit: 1.07260.
Stop Loss: 1.07800.
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.08480.
Take Profit: 1.09000.
Stop loss: 1.08150.