Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold, represented in the XAU/USD pair, has been on the rise, recovering from its recent weekly low near 1915.89 and is currently hovering at 1924.50. This rise comes amid growing concerns about the deteriorating economic situation in China, downward revision of Japan's Q2 GDP forecast and escalating tensions between the US and China, the world's dominant economies. These developments, including reports that China is restricting the use of iPhones in central agencies and the ongoing US tariff review, added caution to the stock market.
Comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo hinted at no immediate changes to the current tariffs against China. As a result, investors have become distinctly risk averse, prompting them to gravitate towards safe havens such as gold. This cautious sentiment has been the catalyst for the decline in US Treasury yields, prompting traders to reassess their bullish positions on the US Dollar, which recently reached its highest level since early March. 
However, with the US economy showing resilience, as evidenced by recent macroeconomic data such as the ISM Services PMI and a decline in weekly jobless claims, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance. Such data indicates a resilient U.S. economic situation despite a strong dollar and continued rate hikes. Current forecasts indicate a high probability that the Fed will keep rates on hold in the coming month. The combination of a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields makes gold less attractive to investors in the short term.
 
Noteworthy statements from Fed officials such as Laurie Logan and Christopher Waller have emphasized caution and a data-driven focus, drawing attention to issues such as a weakening labor market. With the upcoming G20 summit and the release of Chinese inflation data, the market remains on hold. Sustained buying is needed for a clearer bullish trajectory for gold, traders may take a wait-and-see stance as they await new signals from the Fed and other developments in the global economy.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The Alligator Indicator suggests consolidation as the moving averages are crossing, indicating that the alligator may be "going to take a nap". The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in green, which is a confirmation of bullish signals. Given the bullish signals of AO and AC, the situation is favorable for buyers.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1931.00.
Take Profit: 1938.00.
Stop loss: 1927.00.
  
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1915.00.
Take Profit: 1905.00.
Stop loss: 1920.00.