Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold rose to 1927.20 during the day, recovering from last week's drop.
Gold prices rose on Monday, mainly due to a weaker US dollar ahead of the release of US inflation data. This inflation data could influence the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.  U.S. gold futures reflected the gains, rising to the 1951.00 level. The possibility of a lack of inflation in the U.S. could cause the dollar to fall further. Wednesday's expected U.S. consumer price index data could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. 
Investment flows into dollars and US Treasuries have not reduced the attractiveness of gold as a protective asset, which continues to support its value. Currently, market participants estimate that there is a 93% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in September and a 43% probability that the Fed will raise rates by the end of 2023. At the same time, the interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.3%. The US dollar index suffered intraday losses during the Asian session on Monday even amid the positive performance of US Treasury yields, falling to 104.60. This decline could be attributed to the expected CPI data designed to shed light on the inflation picture in the US. Statements by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chicago Fed Chair Austan Goolsbee emphasized confidence that it would be possible to contain inflation without destabilizing employment. 
Internationally, China's consumer price index released in August showed a marginal increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% increase. This disappointing data may have affected gold's position, albeit briefly. The Chinese real estate sector is also in turmoil as Country Garden, the largest real estate developer, prepares to vote on whether to extend its debt maturity. All eyes are on the Chinese authorities as they strategize on how to achieve the 5% GDP growth target for the year. 
In general, the sentiment towards gold looks cautiously optimistic and largely depends on the upcoming decisions and statements of the Federal Reserve, as well as on global economic indicators. Despite the recent decline, dollar momentum remains strong, largely due to strong US economic data. However, this strength has led to gold declining on a weekly basis for the first time in nearly 4 weeks. Investors now look forward to US inflation data on September 13 and the Fed's policy announcement on September 20. 
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The Alligator indicator indicates that the market is in a flat phase. The moving averages are intertwined with each other, which means there is no strong direction in the price movement. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the green zone, near the zero level. Normally this would indicate a strong buy signal, but given the proximity to the zero level, the signal is weak. Given that the indicators are in the green zone and the current price position between the support and resistance levels, we can talk about a bullish sentiment.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1931.00.
Take Profit: 1938.00.
Stop-loss: 1927.00.
  
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1915.00.
Take Profit: 1905.00.
Stop loss: 1920.00.