Gold, Technical Analysis – H4

Gold remains in a swift and pronounced downtrend, making any attempts to bet on an upside reversal similar to trying to stop a speeding locomotive. However, we can identify a key diagnostic level that would signal sufficient bullish strength for a potential trend reversal: the $4,180–$4,200 per ounce zone. Until then, a test of the important psychological support at $4,000 remains the more logical expectation.

Key Levels:

□ $4,000 — Major psychological support  

□ $4,180–$4,200 — Key diagnostic resistance / reversal confirmation zone  

□ $4,150 — Intermediate resistance  

□ $3,950–$3,900 — Deeper support on extension  

Primary Scenario:

Continued decline toward the $4,000 psychological support level.

Alternative Scenario: 

An attempt at an upside reversal, which would require bulls to achieve a firm consolidation above $4,200.

Analyst Commentary:

Do not buy gold until the price reliably consolidates and holds above $4,200. While this approach will result in a wider stop-loss, it will substantially reduce the probability of the stop being hit.