General analysis AUDUSD for 03.06.2022

Current Dynamics

The Australian dollar continues to rise despite the decline at the beginning of yesterdays trading session, it fixed its gains with the support of strong macroeconomic data released yesterday in Australia and expectations of a key interest rate hike.
Economic data showed that Australian retail sales index rose 0.9% in May in line with expectations, down 0.7% from the previous forecast of 1.6%, and Australian trade balance recorded a surplus of about A$10.5 billion last month, exceeding expectations of a surplus of A$9.02 billion.
On the other hand, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed a significant increase in gross domestic product for the first quarter of 0.8%, versus an expected 0.6%. Real GDP grew 0.8% in the quarter and was up 3.3% for the year. That growth followed a 3.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 21.
Meanwhile, Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Belinda Allen said the Australian economy has entered a cycle of rising interest rates in a bright spot.
Felicity Emmett, ANZ economist, noted that while GDP was in line with expectations, today's data confirmed the very strong growth in average hourly earnings shown in the Business Indicators report, and the 5.3% estimate is much higher than forecast just a few weeks ago, and certainly much stronger than the signal from the wage price index, pushing for more aggressive resistance to the expansion of inflationary pressures. She also pointed out that all of this data should be enough to convince the head of Australia's central bank that there is "very good reason" to deviate from the usual 25 basis point move and raise the liquidity ratio slightly.
All in all, the dynamics of the Australian dollar depend heavily on next week's interest rate decision and its likely direction in the coming months, which could be seen as supportive for the "ozzie" price.
Financial markets expect Australian central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week.
According to Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe, the board is determined to do whatever is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia eventually returns to its target level.
Looking at the most important macroeconomic events in Australia, the central bank's interest rate decision, due to be released next Tuesday, will be the most important, which could cause fluctuations in indicators in case of unexpected results.

Support and resistance levels.

• Support levels: 0,72250, 0,71800, 0,71400.

• Resistance levels: 0,72700, 0,73100, 0,73450.

Trading scenarios

• Long positions can be opened above the level of 0,72700, with a target of 0,73100 and stop loss 0,72250: Implementation period: 1-2 days.

• Short positions can be opened below the level of 0,72250 with a target of 0,71800 and stop loss 0,72700: Implementation period: 1-2 days.