Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

A brief review of economic developments:

U.S.: The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation forecasts. This could put pressure on the dollar as the market may start to expect more rapid rate hikes in the future.

US: US President Joe Biden signed an order to prohibit investments in Chinese companies, which, according to the US government, support China's defense and surveillance technology. This could cause the dollar to strengthen as investors may seek a safe haven in the USD.

 International news: Global gold prices continue to rise as investors seek safe havens due to rising geopolitical risks and inflation expectations. This could put pressure on the dollar and support the XAU.

The impact of macroeconomic statistics:

C. Waller's speech from the Fed: Comments from Fed members always have an impact on the dynamics of the dollar. If Waller talks about the possibility of more rapid rate hikes or monetary tightening, it might strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the XAU/USD. Otherwise, if he talks about the need to keep policy stimulative, it might weaken the dollar and support the XAU/USD.

University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index (June): If the actual data exceeds forecasts, this could strengthen the dollar as it indicates improved consumer sentiment and could lead to increased consumer spending, which is positive for the economy. If the data is lower than expected, it could weaken the dollar and support the XAU/USD.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (June): This index also affects the dollar for the same reasons as the Consumer Sentiment Index.

Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

Bollinger Bands: The pair is getting stronger at the top of the Bollinger Bands, which might indicate a possible strengthening of gold against the dollar. However, as the bands are widening, it might also indicate for rising volatility.

MACD: The MACD is above its signal line, which is a bullish signal. This can indicate a possible strengthening of gold against the dollar.

Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic is in overbought zone (above 80), which may indicate a possible downward correction movement.

Key levels:

Support levels: 1932.10, 1942.15, 1951.60
Resistance levels: 1969.80, 1983.60, 2001.17, 2021.30

Main scenario: If gold continues to strengthen, it might test the resistance level of 1969.80. If this level is broken through, the next targets will be 1983.60 and 2001.17. Take profit can be set at these levels and stop loss below the support level of 1942.00.

Alternate scenario: If gold begins a corrective move lower, it might test support at 1942.15. If this level is broken through, the next targets are 1932.10 and 1921.60. Take profit can be set at these levels and stop loss can be set above the resistance level of 1969.80.