Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair showed resilience, maintaining upward momentum at the beginning of the week, trading relatively steady near the 1.0925 mark. This comes amid cautious optimism in the market, which has weakened the US dollar and spurred growth in the euro. One of the key events closely watched is the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum, which started on a lukewarm note, but since then there have been policy speeches and statements by ECB representatives.
Market sentiment was also shaken by Asian lobbyists over news suggesting deregulation of Chinese equities and easing of trade tensions. The euro was also boosted by optimistic comments from ECB policymakers. For example, ECB policy official Matin Cazacs said he thinks the bank may raise rates after July if inflation remains high. The German Bundesbank also dismissed fears of a recession in its monthly report, stressing that the German economy is on the way to recovery and that it expects moderate growth in gross domestic product (GDP).
EUR/USD, on the other hand, faces potential headwinds due to geopolitical tensions and relatively strong U.S. economic data. There are also concerns that the EUR/USD pair could be at risk if ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech at the ECB forum fails to meet the expectations of hawkish investors. Strong U.S. data could also put downward pressure on the pair, including key data such as U.S. durable goods orders for May and the U.S. Consumer Confidence Council. Ky. Therefore, the June period is very important.
On the other hand, EUR/USD started the day very quietly, important euro zone economic data had no impact on the currency pair. However disappointing business climate data from Germany with the Ifo Business Climate Index dropping to 88.5 from 91.5 may also have an impact on the pair. In the absence of other economic indicators, investors' attention is mostly focused on the ECB's statements, especially President Christine Lagarde and executive board members such as Isabel Schnabel, Frank Elderson and Fabio Panetta. In short, EUR/USD is supported by cautious market optimism and a weaker U.S. dollar, but investors are keeping a close eye on key ECB forum speeches and data releases. It is economically sound. Geopolitical tensions and strong data from the U.S. could be a potential game changer for the pair.
Technical analysis and scenarios:
In technical analysis, the Alligator indicator indicates that the market is currently in a flat as the moving averages are intertwined. However, Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the green zone near the zero level, which is a strong buy signal.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.09930.
Take Profit: 1.10440.
Stop loss: 1.09650.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.08890.
Take profit: 1.08160.
Stop loss: 1.09250.