Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD is showing positive dynamics, trading at 109020.  Despite the German retail sales and unemployment data, these indicators may have only a temporary impact on the currency pairs. Of greater concern for investors is the widespread pessimism about incomes, the economy and unemployment rates reflected in the German consumer confidence survey. 
Markets are watching for future Eurozone inflation data and expect the ECB to raise interest rates in September. German inflation data shows a slight decline in inflation, but the pressure on the ECB has not eased significantly. If eurozone inflation data remains strong, a rate hike is warranted. During the meeting, the minutes of the ECB monetary policy meeting will be scrutinized, but no shocks are expected. According to ECB spokesperson Schnabel's speech, uncertainty requires a data-driven approach and robust analysis.
In the US, the key factors in July will be the core price index and personal income data. Hopes for another Fed rate hike were dampened by disappointing employment data. However, a marked increase in the core price index and spending may raise speculation that the Fed's stance may become more hawkish. In particular, the upward trend in personal spending could lead to demand-driven inflation, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates to contain disposable income growth and curb spending. Better-than-expected U.S. economic data could give the dollar a competitive advantage. 
As hopes grow that the U.S. Federal Reserve may end its rate hike cycle, the strong U.S. dollar rally is likely to be contained. Disappointing US macroeconomic data, such as the report that new jobs rose by just 177k in August and a downward revision to US GDP, further reinforced these expectations. Conversely, the latest inflation data from Germany could spark speculation that the ECB will raise interest rates, which could push the euro higher. Such a favorable economic backdrop may encourage buying opportunities in EUR/USD, so caution should be exercised. Market participants are awaiting the release of US financial data, including the core price index and weekly jobless claims. These factors, as well as US Treasury yields and general market sentiment, will determine the demand for the dollar and influence the EUR/USD pair. However, all eyes will be on the Non-Farm Payroll Change report, which will be released on Friday.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Stochastic is currently in the neutral zone. Although the value is below the signal, indicating a possible downtrend, it is not yet in oversold or overbought territory, indicating balanced momentum. Bollinger Bands: Price is positioned above the middle band, indicating bullish sentiment. In addition, the widening price range as well as the upward direction of the bands indicates that the market is gaining volatility with a potential uptrend. MACD is below its signal line and both values are negative. This could be a bearish signal indicating a potential downtrend, but the convergence of both lines indicates a potential change in momentum. Given the price position relative to the Bollinger Bands and the current neutral Stochastic, the main scenario suggests a possible bullish continuation in the short term.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.09490.
Take Profit: 1.10000.
Stop Loss: 1.09100. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.08440.
Take profit: 1.08090.
Stop loss: 1.08750.