Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD is in correction after a rapid decline and is trading at 1.06550. 
The EUR/USD pair showed a decline, hitting a low of zero at 1.06316 on Wednesday. Although the European Central Bank unexpectedly announced an interest rate hike of 25 basis points, the currency pair did not benefit much. This may be due to the ECB's somewhat cautious stance, indicating that the current interest rate hike cycle may be nearing its peak. The market is expected to look at the broader economic situation in the Eurozone based on the ECB's view. Today's trade data is of interest as the trade surplus is expected to decline from €23 billion to €20 billion. Investors expect improved economic conditions to support economic growth and offset the risks of a prolonged recession. 
Of particular importance will be the state of trade with key partners such as China and the US. China's latest economic indicators provide some grounds for optimism. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales rose 4.6% year-on-year in August, exceeding forecasts of 3.0%. In addition, industrial production increased by 4.5% in August, indicating economic recovery. Given the close trade relations between the Eurozone and China, such positive trends in China could improve the Eurozone's economic outlook. 
On the other side of the Atlantic, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing strength, trading near a six-month high at 105.20, with recent U.S. economic data, including an improvement in initial jobless claims and a rise in retail sales, helping to bolster the dollar. However, the CME tool shows a decreasing likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming months. 
Today, as markets watch events such as Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index, the Eurogroup meeting in the Eurozone and Eurozone labor market news. Concerns persist in the eurozone, especially in the services sector, which appears to be weakening. And as ECB President Christine Lagarde prepares to speak, any significant deviation from the bank's recent stance could affect the trajectory of EUR/USD. 
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Price is currently trading near the lower band at 1.06290, which often acts as a support level. The widening of the bands indicates an increase in volatility. The direction of the middle band also indicates a bearish trend. The value of 20.3120 (with a signal at 13.3481) indicates a potential bullish divergence as the value is approaching the oversold area (<20). This suggests a potential upward reversal. The value of -0.002164 is below the -0.000966 signal. This bearish crossover indicates the possibility of further price decline. Given the oversold territory on Stochastics, there is a potential for a short-term bullish reversal.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.07060.
Take Profit: 1.07500.
Stop Loss: 1.06800. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.06200.
Take profit: 1.05700.
Stop loss: 1.06400.