General analysis USDJPY for 03.12.2024

Current Dynamics The U.S. dollar's recent decline has brought the Japanese yen closer to the 149 mark. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a potential interest rate hike, a long-awaited move that now has a 60% probability of happening in December, according to market sentiment. Inflation, a pivotal factor for the BOJ's policy decisions, remains above the 2% year-on-year target without signs of significant easing, putting additional pressure on the central bank. On December 3, the dollar dropped to 148.550 yen, its lowest point since October 11, marking a notable decline for the month. This movement follows five sessions where USD/JPY failed to breach the key support at 151.5. Despite some relief for the yen, it remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve adopts a more measured stance on rate cuts, diverging from expectations of more aggressive reductions. As markets adjust, traders are keeping a close eye on U.S. economic data and Japanese monetary policy for clues on future currency trends. Support and Resistance Levels On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is consolidating under the middle Bollinger Band range. The nearest resistance level is the upper Bollinger Band. The indicator is directed downwards , indicating a continuation of the downtrend. The Ichimoku Cloud is directed downward. Support levels: 146.603, 148.598 Resistance levels: 153.559, 153.710. 156.703 Trading scenarios Short positions should be opened at the current price, targeting the support levels at 146.603. The implementation period for these positions is 1-2 days. Long positions can be opened above the level of 151.559, with a target of 153.710 and a stop-loss at 148.598. The implementation period for these positions is 1-4 days.