Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, reaching a high of 1.07688, but the pair struggled to hold its ground on Wednesday, hovering around 1.07400.
Market participants are closely watching the Eurozone industrial production data, which is expected to shed light on the state of the Eurozone economy. The current forecast calls for the figure to decline to -0.7% in July, which is a reversal from the 0.5% increase seen in June. This is important as any sustained decline in the manufacturing sector could deal a severe blow to the broader economic structure. The ZEW index, which measures economic sentiment in the eurozone, fell more than expected to -8.9 in September. This slowdown is likely to affect demand-driven inflation, making it less urgent for the European Central Bank to address current inflation concerns. However, rumors of an upward revision to the 2024 inflation forecast have caused uncertainty in ECB policy, which has increased expectations for Thursday's upcoming interest rate announcement. The ECB expects eurozone inflation to exceed 3% next year. This is spurring talk of another consecutive interest rate hike: market indicators reflect a nearly 40% forecast for such a hike at the next meeting. If these assumptions are correct, the ECB could raise interest rates again, potentially leading to a strengthening of the euro against the US currency.
In the US context, all eyes are on the upcoming Consumer Price Index data. Forecasts show that the annual interest rate will rise from 3.2% to 3.6%, while the prime rate is expected to fall from 4.7% to 4.4%. This could increase volatility in EUR/USD and shape the perception of the Fed's monetary stance. Given the popular "higher interest rates, longer term" narrative in the US, 93% of respondents expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September. At the same time, there is a 40.8% chance of an interest rate hike at the November meeting. 
In the coming days, investors will be keeping a close eye on Eurozone industrial production data and the much-anticipated U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for August. On Thursday, attention will shift to the ECB's currency strategy and US retail sales data, events that could chart a clear path for EUR/USD.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Price is currently near the upper band at 1.07680, the middle band at 1.07280 and the lower band at 1.06920. The bands are oriented horizontally, indicating relatively stable volatility. Price movement within the upper band indicates a bullish bias, but is approaching possible resistance. The stochastic oscillator is at 76.6985, which is above the signal line of 74.4574, indicating possible overbought in the short term. The MACD line is at 0.000128 which is above its signal line (-0.000287) indicating bullish momentum in the short term.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level : 1.08090.
Take Profit : 1.08700.
Stop Loss: 1.07870. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.06700.
Take profit: 1.06200.
Stop loss: 1.07000.