Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 01.11.2021
The Fed will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting this week, which ends on November 3. The regulator is expected to announce the start of stimulus cuts. Investors are most interested in the timing of the first key interest rate hike and the frequency of monetary policy tightening, as QE rollbacks have already been priced into the market.
The dollar weakened against major currencies on Monday amid weak U.S. manufacturing activity data.
EUR/USD today almost ignored the decline of retail sales in Germany in September. Analysts had expected a light growth on economic recovery, but the data showed a 2.5% decline, which disappointed the market participants. In annual terms, the volume of retail sales fell by 0.9%. It should also be noted that November and December will be tough months for the European currency, as energy prices will remain high ahead of the winter.
GBP/USD showed mixed dynamics on Monday. On the one hand, the pair was supported by the growth of the business activity in the UK manufacturing sector from 57.1 to 57.8 basis points in October. Further, the business activity in the manufacturing sector in the US declined more than expected. At the same time, after reaching the local highs, the pair went down again amid the closure of the large volume of long positions in the pound.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD have strengthened minimally today. Market participants' interest in currencies with high beta coefficients is falling ahead of the Fed meeting. Australia is releasing positive statistics as economic activity is picking up after a prolonged lockdown. At the same time, the Australian regulator has clearly lost control of government bond yields. Tomorrow the RBA will announce its interest rate decision. The USD/CAD again failed to overcome the psychological level of 1.2400. A rebound in oil prices contributes to the strength of the Canadian currency.
Brent and WTI resumed growth. Demand continues to exceed supply. China announced the start of domestic sales of main oil products from state reserves; however, it did not have any negative impact on the hydrocarbons market. Traders are interested in the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, which will be held next Thursday.
Gold has moderately strengthened today amid dollar weakness. The XAU/USD has not yet regained its "safe-haven" status and is likely to trade in the 1770-1800 range within the next two days before the outcome of the Open Market Committee meeting is announced.