General analysis AUDUSD for 01.03.2022

Current Dynamics

This morning the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. AUD/USD currency pair quotes have continued their small growth.

Philip Lowe stated:

"The world economy continues to recover from the pandemic. However the war in Ukraine is a new serious source of uncertainty. Inflation in some parts of the world has risen sharply due to significant increases in energy prices and supply chain disruptions at a time of high demand."

Philip Lowe also noted that inflation rose faster than the RBA expected. The regulator expects core inflation to rise to 3.25% in the coming quarters, with a subsequent decline to 2.75% in 2023. However, the Consumer Price Index will be higher due to higher gasoline prices as a result of global events.The Home Loan (m/m) data also released Tuesday morning was worse than experts had expected. Home loans rose 1.0%. Experts had expected a growth of 2.0%. The released manufacturing activity index was above 50.0 points at 53.2 indicating an uptick in activity in the sector.

The ISM Manufacturing from PMI for February will be released today at 17:00 (GMT+2) in the U.S. Experts expect the index reading at 58.0 points. Also tonight tonight U.S. President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak. At the same time worth noting that on Wednesday, the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is expected to speak, where investors will be interested in the rhetoric on the US monetary policy.

Support and resistance levels.

The currency pair AUD/USD opened on Monday with the gap below Friday's closing trading session (below the Fibonacci 61.8 level). Monday evening the quotes rose above Friday's closing level (Fibonacci level of 76.4) and continued to grow. On Tuesday the instrument broke the local four-day high, but failed to hold above it. The RSI oscillator is trading above 50 and it is starting to move from the upside to the downside.

• Support levels: 0.6967, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7141, 0.7182, 0.7232
• Resistance levels: 0.7284, 0.7314, 0.7529

Trading scenarios

• Short positions can be opened from the current level with target 0.7100 and stop-loss 0.7314 Execution time: 2-4 days
• Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7314 with target 0.7529 and stop-loss 0.7232 Execution time: 2-4 days