Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 09.12.2021
09.12.2021 16:23
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On Thursday, market participants are cautious ahead of tomorrow's CPI publication in the U.S. Authoritative Bloomberg expects inflation to rise from 6.2% to 6.8%-7%. In case such a scenario materializes, the dollar will go up along with Treasury yields. However, the slowdown in consumer prices will create serious problems for the Fed. The head of the U.S. regulator has convinced investors in the aggressive monetary policy. Part of the market believes that QE will be phased out as early as March and the first rate hike will take place in the first quarter of 2022. The Fed will have a hard time resetting if things do not go according to plan, which will lead to a sell-off of the dollar. This development is also likely and part of the market confirms the fears by buying assets with a high beta coefficient. It is also worth noting that the risks off the virus have gone down after Pfizer announced that it was able to neutralize omicron in a laboratory setting.
EUR/USD on Wednesday after ECB official Isabella Schnabel, who is a member of the Governing Council and has credibility. Schnabel that with the recovery of the European economy QE contributes to increased price pressures and catalyzes the risks of financial instability. At the same time, despite Schnabel's regalia, the ECB continues to take a cautious stance. If American CPI forecasts are confirmed, the pair will be under 1.1200 again.
The British currency is showing a moderate decline. The British government said it was preparing for new measures of social distancing because of the omicron strain. Already now the UK authorities have recomended large companies to move their employees to remote work. GBP/USD is trading below the psychological level of 1.3200, which is a yearly low. Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2) the UK will publish the GDP and industrial production data.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD are rising on increased risk appetite among investors. The Australian dollar is more attractive and outperforms the NZD amid a rebound in economic activity after the lock-up. The USD/CAD dynamics can be characterized as a downtrend correction. Some traders were disappointed with the key rate kept by the Canadian regulator, however most of the market understood the caution of the Bank of Canada, given the fact that Omicron has already penetrated into North America.
Brent and WTI maintain strong upside potential. According to epidemiological studies, the new strain COVID-19 is not as dangerous as previously thought. At the same time the imposition of quarantine measures in Denmark, the UK and the closure of China's Guangdong province to tourists weighs on demand estimates.
The XAU/USD continues to trade in a limited range, awaiting the release of the U.S. inflation numbers. Summary position indicates an equilibrium of long and short trades in the market, which confirms the presence of correctional dynamics.
EUR/USD on Wednesday after ECB official Isabella Schnabel, who is a member of the Governing Council and has credibility. Schnabel that with the recovery of the European economy QE contributes to increased price pressures and catalyzes the risks of financial instability. At the same time, despite Schnabel's regalia, the ECB continues to take a cautious stance. If American CPI forecasts are confirmed, the pair will be under 1.1200 again.
The British currency is showing a moderate decline. The British government said it was preparing for new measures of social distancing because of the omicron strain. Already now the UK authorities have recomended large companies to move their employees to remote work. GBP/USD is trading below the psychological level of 1.3200, which is a yearly low. Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2) the UK will publish the GDP and industrial production data.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD are rising on increased risk appetite among investors. The Australian dollar is more attractive and outperforms the NZD amid a rebound in economic activity after the lock-up. The USD/CAD dynamics can be characterized as a downtrend correction. Some traders were disappointed with the key rate kept by the Canadian regulator, however most of the market understood the caution of the Bank of Canada, given the fact that Omicron has already penetrated into North America.
Brent and WTI maintain strong upside potential. According to epidemiological studies, the new strain COVID-19 is not as dangerous as previously thought. At the same time the imposition of quarantine measures in Denmark, the UK and the closure of China's Guangdong province to tourists weighs on demand estimates.
The XAU/USD continues to trade in a limited range, awaiting the release of the U.S. inflation numbers. Summary position indicates an equilibrium of long and short trades in the market, which confirms the presence of correctional dynamics.