General analysis EURUSD for 24.02.2022

Current dynamics

Today EURUSD has significantly lost in price against the background of a stronger dollar. The catalyst for the fall of the pair was the Russian President's announcement of the start of a special operation in Ukraine. The West introduces another package of sanctions, while the scale of the military operation is growing, becoming a full-fledged military invasion.

Investors are actively getting rid of risky assets, while the US dollar, meanwhile, is strengthening in its safe-haven status. The war in Ukraine will obviously have a negative impact on the world economy, with the Eurozone suffering the most significant losses. Europe is extremely dependent on Russian oil and gas, as it receives about half of its volume from the Russian Federation. Currently, the price of oil has exceeded $100 per barrel, and the sharp increase in the energy crisis will affect all areas of the European economy. According to the European Central Bank, the withdrawal of 10% of gas volumes will reduce the economy of the Eurozone by 0.7%. Higher energy prices would contribute to a sharp rise in inflation, and the ECB was not prepared for such a development. Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine will obviously increase the price pressure in the U.S. economy, but for the Fed, it is a signal to implement an aggressive monetary policy. The probability of raising the rate by 50 basis points in March rose to 41%, which together with the strengthening of the dollar as a safe-haven asset puts significant pressure on the trading instrument.

Support and resistance levels

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is fixed below the Bollinger Band indicator range. The indicator is directed downward and the price range is increasing, indicating that the pair's decline continues. Histogram MACD is in the negative zone, keeping a strong sell signal. Stochastic went into the oversold area, no signal to open positions has been formed.

• Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1130, 1.1175.
• Resistance levels: 1.1210, 1.1255, 1.1295, 1.1350, 1.1415, 1.1445, 1.1480.

Trading Scenarios

• It is possible to open short positions at the current price with a target of 1.1100 and a stop-loss at the level of 1.1170. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
• Long positions should be opened above the level of 1.1180 with a target of 1.1230 and a stop-loss at 1.1150. Implementation period: 1-2 days.