General analysis Brent for 01.04.2022

Current Dynamics

The White House plans to release up to 180 million bpd over the next 6 months. OPEC+ increases oil production by 423 kbpd. OPEC+ Technical Committee increased its forecast of a surplus in the oil market.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced the largest oil release from the U.S. strategic oil reserves in history. Washington plans to release an average of 1 mbpd of oil from its reserves over the next 6 months. The US will also offer China and India to release their oil reserves. Meanwhile, the fuel crisis continues. The worldwide oil price growth resulted in sharp fuel price increase in Costa Rica, where gasoline price went up 10% to $1.4 per liter and diesel price increased 21% to $1.36 per liter.
At the same time the OPEC+ countries agreed to increase oil production by 432 thousand barrels per day in May. This way the OPEC+ countries stepped back from the previous deal, which had provided increase in oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day every month.
Meanwhile, in Riyadh the peace conference on the situation in Yemen began to work. Representatives of the rebels - Yemeni Houthis refused to participate in the talks, because they are held in Saudi Arabia. However, the command of the Yemeni rebel movement supported the ceasefire introduced by Saudi Arabia for the period of the month of Ramadan.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said the country opposes an embargo on oil and gas supplies from Russia. Meanwhile, Indonesian oil and gas company PT Pertamina is considering the possibility of buying Russian oil at a discounted price. Also, negotiations between South Korea and the Gulf Cooperation Council on the creation of a free trade zone are renewed. It is worth noting that in March the export of oil products grew by 90.1%.
Technical Committee of OPEC+ revised the forecast on oil surplus upwardly.  According to the Committee, supply will exceed demand by 1.3 mbpd on average by the end of the year. Oil consumption is expected at 100.9 mbpd, while crude production will remain at 102.2 mbpd.

The EIA released data showed a 3.449 mbpd decline in crude demand, compared to expected 1.022 mbpd decline, however gasoline inventories added 0.785 mbpd, compared to expected 1.744 mbpd and distillate inventories gained 1.394 mbpd where experts expected a 1.550 mbpd decline.

Support and resistance levels

Brent crude oil fell below the key Fibonacci level of 76.4. The RSI oscillator is down above the 30 level with a tendency to move toward the 50 level.

• Support levels:  101.30, 95.85 
• Resistance levels: 131.00, 122.70, 117.70, 113.50 109.30, 104.15

Trading scenarios

• Long positions can be opened above the level of 104.15 with a target of 109.30 and a stop loss of 101.30. Implementation period: 1-3 days
• Short positions can be opened below the level of 101.30 with a target of 95.85 and a stop loss of 104.15. Implementation period: 1-3 days