General analysis Brent for 30.06.2022

Current Dynamics

U.S. oil production is growing. Rising fuel prices lead to instability in Latin America. OPEC+ lowered its forecasts of global oil surpluses for 2022. Libya stopped exporting oil from key ports. China cut fuel prices for the second time since the beginning of the year.
U.S. oil production for the week through June 24 - increased by 100 thousand barrels per day, to 12.1 million bpd. U.S. oil production averaged 12 million bpd over the past four weeks.
Meanwhile, in Latin America, high fuel prices are fueling public protests. Police in Argentina blocked the main entrance to the center of the capital to prevent a group of truckers from joining a downtown protest. In Peru, truckers began an indefinite strike on June 27 to protest increasing fuel prices, and in Ecuador for more than two weeks of protests led by indigenous people whose main demand is lower gasoline prices. In Brazil, the head of the state oil company Petrobras resigned last week amid political pressure due to rising prices.
Against this background, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that a delegation from the U.S. arrived in the country, with whom was negotiating about the release of U.S. citizens detained in Venezuela. It is not excluded that the U.S. representatives could also discuss the removal of sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports and the situation with the rising world energy prices.
The OPEC+ Technical Committee lowered the forecast of the oil surpluses at the world market in 2022 from 1.4 mln bpd, which was expected a month ago, to 1 mln bpd. It' worth noting that the allowed production of oil for the OPEC+ countries in May was 42.126 mln bpd, while the real production level was lower - 39.429 mln bpd. Against this background, Iranian Foreign Ministry official said that Tehran intended to restore diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and that Riyadh wanted to continue dialogue with a view to normalize relations.
Meanwhile, Libya's state-owned oil company has suspended shipments from two key eastern ports amid a worsening political crisis. It is worth noting that according to the latest research by Platts OPEC+, conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights, production in that North African country fell to a 16-month minimum of 770,000 bpd in May from 1.2 million bpd.
Meanwhile, according to China's National Development and Reform Commission, gasoline and diesel prices will decrease by 320 yuan (about $47.81) per ton and 310 yuan per ton, respectively. The move marks the second drop in fuel prices since the start of this year.

OPEC will hold a preliminary meeting today. U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count data will be released tomorrow at 19:00(GMT+2).

Support and resistance levels.

The Brent broke through the key Fibonacci level of 50.00, but failed to break above it and went to consolidation near the key Fibonacci level of 38.2. Oscillator RSI touched 50 and went back up.

• Support levels: 111.45, 108.85, 104.65
• Resistance levels: 122.45, 118.30, 115.65, 113.55

Trading scenarios

• Long positions can be opened from the current level with a target of 115.65 and stop loss 108.85. Implementation period: 2-4 days
• Short positions can be opened below the level of 108.85 with a target of 104.65 and stop loss 111.45. Implementation period: 2-4 days