Fundamental analysis of EURUSD

The Euro dropped a little bit at the beginning of the trading week, breaking through the 50-day moving average, but then the market quickly returned, showing signs of life and pressure at 1.08. A break-up of that level opens the possibility of a move towards the 1.10 level.

Stock markets are rising, led by solid gains in the U.S., as markets cheer the passage of the debt ceiling bill that averted a U.S. default. The debt negotiations in Washington have been a key focus for markets in recent weeks.

Inflation in the euro zone in May came in below expectations. The overall inflation rate fell to an annual rate of 6.1% in May from 7.0% in April, below analysts' forecast of 6.4%. Core inflation fell to 5.3% in May from 5.6% in April.

Macroeconomic Statistics Impact:

6:30 p.m. and 8 p.m. (GMT+3) U.S. 3-year and 10-year Treasury note auctions. These events could affect the value of the dollar as they reflect investor demand for U.S. government securities. Rising yields will traditionally contribute to the strength of the USD.

21:00 (GMT+3) U.S. federal budget execution report for May. This report may have an impact on the dollar as it reflects the financial condition of the U.S. government. A deficit of $236 billion is projected, which may put pressure on the dollar, if the actual data confirms this forecast.

Technical analysis and scenarios:

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The 61.8455 value indicates that the market is in neutral territory but approaching overbought. This may indicate a possible slowdown in the uptrend.

Bollinger Bands: The middle band is at 1.07425, the upper band is at 1.0855 and the lower band is at 1.06815. The bands are widening, indicating increased volatility. The pair is strengthening in the upper band range, which may indicate a continuation of the uptrend.

MACD (12.26.9): The MACD value (0.001355) is slightly below its signal line (0.001454), which may indicate a possible weakening of the uptrend.

Key levels:

Support levels: 1.06325, 1.06800, 1.07110, 1.07435

Resistance levels: 1.07840, 1.0860, 1.08430, 1.08810

Main scenario: It is recommended to open long positions at the current price with the target level being 1.0860. Stop loss can be placed at the support level of 1.07435 and take profit at 1.0860.

Alternative scenario: If the pair fails to overcome the resistance level of 1.07840 and rolls back, it may indicate the beginning of a downtrend. In this case, the next target level will be 1.07110. Stop loss can be placed at 1.07840 and take profit at 1.07110.