Fundamental analysis of WTI

28.07.2023 13:44
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WTI oil price is trading at a strong psychological resistance level of 80 USD. The overall direction of oil prices seems unclear as market participants await new monetary policy news from the Federal Reserve in September.
Investors have remained stable throughout the month. They are eagerly awaiting the release of the U.S. second quarter labor cost index and the Fed's preferred inflation measure to determine their next course of action. The pattern shows that market participants are forecasting global interest rates to peak, meaning that the hard times for oil are over and are expected to rise for a fifth consecutive week on optimism of strong demand and tightening supply. Expectations of a slowdown in the pace of policy tightening by central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have boosted risk appetite in broad financial markets, improving the outlook for global growth and energy demand.
Investors increasingly believe that maximum interest rates are imminent and that the likelihood of a U.S. recession will diminish. Meanwhile, the eurozone's major economies showed unexpected resilience in the second quarter, despite early signs of weakness in the manufacturing and services sectors. Chinese policymakers also vowed to step up stimulus after the COVID-19 pandemic slowed the world's second-largest economy in the second quarter. With favorable economic conditions, healthy demand and production cuts by the OPEC+ alliance, analysts forecast that WTI crude oil could return to its 2023 high.
Technical analysis and scenarios:


WTI crude oil futures are currently trading at $79.60, sandwiched between several key levels. Immediate resistance is at $82.50, followed by the $85.00 level and strong resistance at $90.00. On the other hand, support levels are at $78.00, $77.00 and $74.90. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows an upper band at $80.00, a middle band at $79.20 and a lower band at $78.40, indicating a flat trend with a wide price range. WTI price is currently trading in the upper band of the indicator.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 82.50.
Take Profit: 85.00.
Stop loss: 79.70.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 78.00.
Take Profit: 77.00.
Stop loss: 78.50.