Fundamental analysis of WTI

31.07.2023 10:36
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WTI crude oil price continues to be bullish after a small correction, despite a small correction after reaching quarterly highs around 80.50 USD. Investor optimism remains unshaken amid high interest rates from global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, which has recently focused on upcoming data for key decisions. 

The main driver of the bullish trend is the expectation of a continuation of Saudi Arabia's voluntary production cuts until September. The move is expected to reduce global supply and further boost prices. Specifically, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain its voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd until the end of September. In the US, energy companies reduced the number of drilling rigs to 529 in July for the eighth consecutive month. Market participants are also focused on the upcoming Chinese manufacturing PMI data for July on Wednesday. 
In addition, global oil demand is at an unprecedented high: in July, global oil demand totaled 102.8 million barrels per day, with strong economic growth in India and the U.S. offsetting a slowdown in consumption growth in China. Oil prices ended the last week of July at their highest levels since April, and their monthly increase is expected to be the largest since January 2022. 
All these factors create a favorable backdrop for the oil market, the extension of Saudi Arabia's production cuts and rising demand in major economies will lead to optimism and higher oil prices for months to come. However, as the situation can change rapidly, investors are advised to stay abreast of the latest announcements and developments in the market.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:


Given the bullish momentum in the oil market, the main scenario assumes a continuation of the upward movement in the price of WTI crude oil. With the current price at $80.30 and the upper Bollinger Bands at $80.50, the price is rising in the upper range of the indicator, indicating an uptrend.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 82.50.
Take Profit: 85.00.
Stop loss: 80.50.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 79.50.
Take Profit: 78.00.

Stop loss: 80.30.