Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing a slight bearish bias as market participants eagerly await important news on employment and money supply growth in the US. Over the past few weeks, the yellow metal recorded a weekly decline for the first time in 3 weeks of sustained gains, but quickly recovered when the US inflation warning came in softer than the optimistic previous day's unemployment data. U.S. inflation data showed that annual inflation rose in June to its slowest pace in years, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve can quickly halt competitive price increases, the fastest since the 1980s.The Federal Reserve's willingness to continue rallying, coupled with signs of strong growth in the U.S., put downward pressure on gold. However, softer news on the June Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) index, which the Fed relies on as a key gauge of inflation, relatively weakened gold's position. Despite mixed market sentiment driven by China's stimulus measures and Japan's bond buying, US Dollar bulls are reviving a controlled decline in gold spending and this trend is expected to continue as the market prepares for strong US employment news and PMI.
On the other hand, gold prices are showing huge gains, positioning for the biggest monthly rise in the last 4 months. This rise is being fueled by a growing consensus among buyers that the world's leading banks should end the ongoing period of economic tightening sooner rather than later. This concept is supported by the use of key inflation signals from the US. 
To summarize, gold's recent rally is attributed to a number of factors, including an expected peak in US interest rates, encouraging inflation data and possible changes in central bank policy. Looking ahead, the next significant catalysts for gold, barring geopolitical risks, could be more significant changes to China's stimulus package or the start of Fed rate cuts, which could begin as early as the first quarter of next year.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The current price of XAU/USD is at 1954.00. Looking at the market structure, there are three key support levels located at 1950.00, 1938.50 and 1929.00. Resistance levels are noted at 1978.00, 1969.50 and 1962.10. The Alligator indicator shows that the market is in a downtrend, with the blue line (jaw) well above the red and green lines (teeth and lips), indicating a bearish outlook. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the red zone, near the zero level, which is generally considered a strong sell signal.
Main Scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1950.00.
Take Profit: 1938.00.
Stop Loss: 1955.00.
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1962.10.
Take Profit: 1969.50.
Stop loss: 1955.00.