Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD is under some pressure at the start of the new week, having retreated from a four-day high near 1.09815 after Friday's rather weak US non-farm payrolls data. 
A rebound in demand for the US dollar, driven by growing expectations of a continued hawkish stance from the Fed, is putting some pressure on EUR/USD. US employment data showed that 187k jobs were created in July, indicating a slowdown in labor demand offset by robust wage growth and an unanticipated decline in the unemployment rate, which keeps the potential for another 25bp Fed rate hike in September or November, providing some support to the USD.
In contrast, expectations that the European Central Bank will halt its series of nine consecutive interest rate hikes in September are weighing on the common currency due to signs that core inflation in the eurozone has peaked. The ECB's remark that core inflation is likely to peak in the first half of 2023 reinforces the bearish atmosphere around EUR/USD. However, bearish investors may maintain a cautious stance ahead of this week's upcoming US inflation data.
The key US CPI report released on Thursday will largely determine market expectations regarding the Fed's future interest rate trajectory and, as a result, demand for the US Dollar. Today, traders will be keeping an eye on macroeconomic data from the Eurozone, including German industrial production data. In addition, any policy comments from multiple FOMC members in the absence of meaningful economic data from the US could have an additional stimulative effect on the dollar and open up short-term trading opportunities for EUR/USD.
Germany, the manufacturing center of the Eurozone, is facing weak performance in the manufacturing sector, indicating the possibility of a prolonged recession. On the other hand, rising industrial production may contribute to optimism for economic recovery. As no ECB Executive Board members are scheduled to speak today, media discussions may cause some volatility.
With no US economic statistics scheduled for today's afternoon session, comments from FOMC members Bowman and Harker may have an impact on the market. The focus will be on any mention of the US jobs report, the latest Core PCE price index data and the Fed's upcoming September interest rate decision. Nevertheless, given the fundamentals, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD spot prices appears to lie to the downside.
  
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Stochastic Oscillator: Stoch (5,3,3) is at 81.8119 with a signal at 78.9842, indicating an overbought market. This could signal a potential downside reversal. The Bollinger Bands show that the price is in a lower range: the upper band is at 1.10015, the middle band is at 1.09615 and the lower band is at 1.09165. The bands are pointing downwards and the price range is narrowing, indicating potential bearish momentum. MACD values (12,26,9) indicate a slight bullish convergence but with values close to zero, it does not give a strong signal.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.09000.
Take Profit: 1.08140.
Stop Loss: 1.09500.
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.10690.
Take Profit: 1.11400.
Stop loss: 1.10200.