Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold prices are in a state of moderate volatility, trading at 1889.00 as market participants remain cautious.
Despite recent gains, the yellow metal is still struggling, hitting lows reminiscent of mid-March levels. This is largely due to strong economic data indicating a possible continuation of interest rate hikes in the US. In the currency market, the US Dollar Index continues to impress, breaking above the 103.40 line with confidence, a major hurdle for gold. The financial world is awaiting a statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. There was a lot of speculation as to whether his comments will be in line with the sentiment noted earlier in the FOMC meeting minutes. A significant number of experts are leaning towards the Fed postponing further rate hikes, while some are pointing to the possibility of a rate cut, but not before March. Other key indicators, including rising Treasury yields and rising mortgage rates, suggest that the Fed may be reluctant to raise rates further. This is especially true given the current weak inflation environment. 
At the same time, the economic situation in Asia is not encouraging. China's recent, but smaller than expected, cut in lending rates failed to satisfy market appetite, reflecting a continuing trend of Beijing's fiscal decisions falling short of expectations. Gold's future is largely dependent on central bank decisions and sentiment. The metal's recent rally is unsustainable and may be reassessed after Powell's speech. Any hint, be it easing or tightening, could trigger a strong move in the market. The balance between global economic signals and underlying demand remains important in determining gold's fate. 
Worries are heightened by geopolitical tensions, concerns over trade tensions and the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) stance on the five-year key lending rate. However, indicators such as rising U.S. Treasury yields and market caution are giving precious metals players hope. The upcoming Fed Chair speech and release of key data such as PMI and US durable goods orders are expected to provide protection to gold.
  
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

Alligator is currently in a hungry state. This suggests that the gold price is in a downtrend as the jaw (blue line) is well above the lips and teeth (green and red lines). This is generally a bearish signal. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the gray area and are showing divergence. This divergence can sometimes signify a potential trend reversal or a period of consolidation, but is not always a concrete sign to start trading.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1900.00.
Take Profit: 1906.00.
Stop Loss: 1897.00.
 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1885.00.
Take profit: 1880.00.
Stop-loss: 1887.00.