Fundamental analysis of WTI

05.09.2023 10:24
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The price of WTI crude oil is consolidating at the level of 85.10.
The dynamic interaction of supply and demand factors continues in the oil market, which makes traders more cautious. The expected actions of OPEC+ members, primarily Saudi Arabia and Russia, are coming to the forefront of the supply issue. They plan to extend a voluntary production cut of one million bpd through October, the fourth consecutive month of production cuts. At the same time, Russia, which has cut exports by 800,000 bpd over the past two months, will announce new terms of partnership with OPEC+. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak suggested that further cuts could be agreed by October. However, while these supply-side strategies have been instrumental in driving oil prices higher, they have been hampered by uncertainty over demand. China's economic recovery appears to have stalled, as evidenced by the slowest service sector growth in eight months despite multiple stimulus measures. Japan, another major Asian economy, faces its own challenges, with household spending down 5% year-on-year, adding to uncertainty about needs. 
On the monetary policy front, the U.S. economic landscape presents a mixed picture. Job growth turned positive in August, but the unemployment rate remained at 3.8%. These mixed indicators seem to support market expectations that the Federal Reserve will limit further rate hikes in the near future. According to the data, there is a greater than 90% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting. A weakening dollar, which can be seen as a result of the Fed's soft stance, often contributes to higher prices for dollar-denominated commodities such as oil, making them more affordable for holders of other currencies. However, the small observed rise in the dollar index could prevent this. 
In Europe, inflationary concerns continue to have a significant impact, especially in light of developments in the labor and energy sectors, as well as rising geopolitical tensions. In this regard, ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of central banks in stabilizing inflation expectations. Thus, the current oil market scenario is characterized by the presence of opposing forces. OPEC+ supply cuts suggest an upward trend, while economic factors affecting the world's leading economies point to a bearish or neutral outlook in the near term. WTI crude oil prices are around 85.10, just below the 2023 high, and the general consensus is that the market is leaning to the upside. However, the possibility of overbought conditions has alerted traders, suggesting that short-term gains may be limited. In such a challenging environment, traders should be prepared for possible market fluctuations.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:


Given the recent movements and technical indicators, WTI crude oil is going through a consolidation phase. The price is currently trading slightly above the middle Bollinger Bands and closer to the upper range, indicating some upward momentum.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 85.50.
Take Profit: 86.00.
Stop loss: 85.25.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 84.05.
Take Profit: 83.20.
Stop loss: 84.50.