Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD has declined after a slight rise the day before and is trading at 1.07430. 
The main attention of traders is focused on the upcoming monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank and the upcoming press conference of ECB President Lagarde. Fears of a possible recession in the Eurozone, fueled by the latest economic signals, are causing growing concern. Despite growing expectations of a possible 25 basis point rate hike due to inflation concerns, the ECB is generally expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, any change or lack of change in interest rates will draw attention to President Lagarde's speech, especially her views on the economy, the outlook and the inflation outlook. In particular, while sustained inflation could lead to further interest rate hikes, an economic slowdown could force the ECB to rely more on available data. Unstable macroeconomic conditions affect employment and disposable income, which could lead to lower consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. Such a scenario makes it less likely that the ECB will raise interest rates immediately. 
On the other side of the Atlantic, data came in that US monthly inflation rose above expectations. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% in August from the previous month, slightly above the 0.2% level, while it rose 3.7% over the same period last year, exceeding expectations of 3.2%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, which was up 4.3% year-on-year. However, market sentiment indicates that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at the next FOMC meeting. However, the Fed is likely to remain cautious about any pickup in inflation in the coming months. Investors currently expect interest rates to remain unchanged this month. However, the probability of a rate hike in November is almost 50%. 
All eyes will be on the ECB interest rate decision today, followed by President Lagarde's speech. At the same time, key economic indicators such as weekly jobless claims, producer price index and monthly retail sales data will be released in the US, which may cause market fluctuations. US and European economic indicators will certainly determine the short-term dynamics of the EUR/USD pair, although the current stronger macroeconomic situation in the US continues to strengthen the dollar, regardless of the ECB's actions.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

With the upper band at 1.07660, the middle band at 1.07380 and the lower band at 1.07120, price is moving in the upper band range. The indicator is pointing to an upward direction and the price band is narrowing, which could signal a possible breakout in either direction. Stochastic Oscillator. The value is 63.9445 with a signal of 55.4223. It is currently in the middle zone, not quite in overbought or oversold territory. The MACD line (value: 0.000198) is above the signal line (value: 0.000110), indicating bullish momentum. Since the MACD line is above the signal line and the price is moving in the upper range of the Bollinger Bands, the short-term momentum is bullish.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level : 1.08090.
Take Profit: 1.08700.
Stop Loss: 1.07870. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.06700.
Take profit: 1.06200.
Stop loss: 1.07000.