Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

During the day, EUR/USD declined to a low of 1.06290 despite positive Ifo German business climate index data for September. 
Despite the fact that the German private sector PMIs showed good results last Friday, the overall mood remained negative. The PMI for services rose noticeably from 47.3 to 49.8, but the private sector as a whole remained in significant decline. Low demand is particularly hard on manufacturers. In addition, the opinion of ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel may have an impact on the markets. If they deviate from the prevailing forecast of interest rate hikes and increases, demand for the euro could be challenged. The Euro is under downward pressure following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to backstop and unfavorable forecasts for CPI and GDP growth in the coming years.
As for the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index will provide insight into the Federal Reserve's policy goals. An increase in this index would be consistent with the FOMC's hawkish stance of raising interest rates. Factors such as a tightening labor market and rising consumer sentiment are contributing to demand-pull inflation, which could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates, which in turn would affect the strength and purchasing activity of consumers. The US Dollar remains strong due to the Fed's hawkish stance on interest rates and rising US Treasury yields. 
The currency pair is awaiting guidance from upcoming data releases, including speeches from top ECB officials. Broader risk sentiment as well as US bond yield dynamics are likely to drive short-term trading decisions for EUR/USD.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Looking at the indicators, EUR/USD is currently showing a bearish bias as it is trading below the middle Bollinger Band and Stochastic values are pointing to continued bearish momentum with a value of 17.7143, which is below 20 and thus signaling potential oversold conditions. Given the current price of 1.06290, the pair seems to be oscillating around the last resistance level of 1.06600. If the pair maintains its bearish momentum, it is expected to test the nearest support level of 1.05700. MACD also seems to be in a bearish crossover: the MACD value of -0.001177 is below the signal value of -0.001018, which supports the bearish stance. The width of the Bollinger Bands indicates volatility, and the fact that the price is rising in the lower range of the indicator signals a possible continuation of the bearish trend.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.05700.
Take Profit: 1.05200.
Stop Loss: 1.05950. 
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.06600.
Take Profit: 1.07120.
Stop loss: 1.06350.