Fundamental analysis of WTI

27.09.2023 10:25
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Oil prices rose on Wednesday, with WTI crude oil trading around 90.60. 
The current rise is due to growing concerns about supply constraints coupled with the onset of the cold season. Despite an unexpected rise in US crude inventories over the past week, concerns remain that inventories in storage facilities in Cushing, Oklahoma, are depleting. The risk that inventories at this hub fall below base operating capacity could add pressure to oil prices. Intentional OPEC+ supply cuts further exacerbate this scenario. Russia's recent decision to restrict gasoline and diesel exports, though subsequently relaxed, is hampering global oil production. Such measures could increase demand for crude oil from refiners through special exemptions and products allowed for export. 
On the financial front, Neel Kashkari of the FRB Minneapolis noted the possibility of a soft landing in the U.S. economy, but emphasized the need for a significant increase in interest rates to avoid a crisis. While recent economic data in Europe and the US point to the possibility of a recession, the outlook for oil prices remains optimistic. Due to the hawkish and conservative stance of the US Federal Reserve, the long history of interest rates in the US has reduced the upside potential for WTI. High interest rates could increase borrowing costs, which would slow the economy and reduce oil consumption. In addition, a stronger US dollar also depresses oil prices as a strong dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of alternative currencies, thereby reducing demand. On the supply side, voluntary production cuts by global oil giants Saudi Arabia and Russia have supported WTI crude oil prices, with the announcement of an extension of production curbs until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia's daily oil production is expected to be in the neighborhood of 1.3 million barrels by the end of 2023.
In the coming days, oil market participants will be keeping a close eye on the weekly EIA crude oil inventories report, followed by economic indicators such as the US second quarter GDP and Core PCE price index, which are likely to have an impact on the WTI price.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:


Given that price is currently moving in the upper range of the Bollinger Bands, showing proximity to the upper band, and the bands are diverging, momentum appears bullish. The upward direction of the Bollinger Bands indicates that the bullish trend is prevailing.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 91.00.
Take Profit: 91.50.
Stop Loss: 90.75.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 90.00.
Take Profit: 89.50.
Stop loss: 90.25.