Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD had limited momentum on Monday, hovering around 1.05850.
Based on recent data, market participants are shifting their attention from inflation to the broader economic situation in the Eurozone. The Eurozone and US manufacturing sectors are under scrutiny, even though their contribution to GDP is less than 30%. In particular, additional manufacturing PMI data is expected for Italy, Spain, France, Germany and the Eurozone. According to preliminary data, the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell slightly from 43.5 to 43.4 in September, while Italy's PMI was expected to have increased from 45.4 to 45.7. These figures, combined with lower inflation, have heightened investor sensitivity, increasing the risk of a prolonged recession in the eurozone if the situation in the private sector persists. At the same time, eurozone unemployment data for August is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%, although this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro's appeal.
In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to see a slight increase from 47.6 to 47.7. However, any unexpected decline could raise fears of a looming recession. Investors are also keeping a close eye on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming statements, especially related to the latest inflation data, which could impact demand for the US Dollar. This ongoing divergence in monetary policy is currently working in the US Dollar's favor. However, this could change, especially if activity in the US services sector slows or wage growth slows, which could weaken the Fed's imperative to maintain a strong trajectory of interest rate hikes. 
From a technical perspective, the pair has been trending lower over the past few months, with any significant upward movement in the current situation indicating a possible change in EUR/USD's short-term trend.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Price is near the upper band at 1/06160, indicating bullish momentum in the short term. Since price is in the upper band range and the bands themselves are horizontal, there is a possibility of continued price volatility in the coming days. The stochastic oscillator, which has a value of 27.2401, is currently below the 30 mark, indicating that the pair may be oversold. This could indicate a possible bullish reversal in the near term. The signal line at 22.1067 also supports this view. The MACD value is negative but is above its signal line, indicating a potential bullish crossover. This could indicate a short-term upward momentum for the pair.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level : 1.06600.
Take Profit: 1.06970.
Stop Loss: 1.06450.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.05660.
Take Profit: 1.05150.
Stop loss: 1.05850.