Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold is currently showing high volatility, mainly influenced by the expectations of the US CPI report and various global economic trends. 
The market remains in a weak retail zone as investors await CPI data. The data shows that the expected inflation rate for December is expected to be 0.2% and annualized price growth is expected to be 3.2%. This report is particularly important as markets are currently pricing in a 66% chance of a US interest rate cut in March.  Expectations for a change in Fed policy rose after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that inflation expectations for U.S. consumers fell to the lowest level in nearly three years. Despite these trends, the strength of the U.S. economy and inflation remaining above target has allowed the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates for an extended period of time. This situation could support the dollar, keep the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 4.0% and keep gold prices under control. Also, the dollar index has strengthened 1.2% this month, making gold less attractive.
Uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates will keep traders hesitant to bet big on gold as they wait for US consumer inflation data to provide clearer guidance. In short, the short-term outlook for gold is very positive and traders are paying close attention to the upcoming consumer price index report and the Federal Reserve's future reaction to determine gold's direction. 
Also, gold prices have been supported by geopolitical issues such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas and concerns about China's economic recovery.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

With the Alligator indicator showing a downtrend (jaw is above the lips and teeth) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) in the red zone, the main scenario suggests a bearish outlook.However, traders should also be prepared for a potential change in market sentiment that could lead to a bullish reversal, which would require a different strategy. It is crucial to monitor market developments and adjust strategies accordingly.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 2020.00.
Take Profit: 2007.00.
Stop loss: 2025.00.
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 2045.00.
Take Profit: 2055.00.
Stop loss: 2040.00.