Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

On Friday, EUR/USD showed a rapid recovery to the level of 1.06090.
Today's European session is of particular importance as the focus is on the key economic indicators in Germany, mainly retail sales and unemployment data for August. Retail Sales showed a weaker-than-forecast decline, coupled with rising unemployment in Germany, which somewhat overshadowed the German economy. Given the central role of private consumption in Germany, which accounts for 50% of GDP, any negative development could further increase speculation of a prolonged recession in Germany. In addition, the entire eurozone is also awaiting September's inflation statistics. According to forecasts, the annual core inflation rate in the eurozone could fall from 5.3% to 4.8%. This data, combined with comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who emphasized a steady approach to raising interest rates, may play a decisive role in determining the direction of the EUR/USD pair. 
On the other side of the Atlantic, the economic agenda in the US continues to dominate. Potential changes in US personal spending and inflation statistics could influence the Fed's interest rate decisions. Strong growth in personal spending could revive expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, especially if US personal income reflects a positive trend. Personal spending and personal income are expected to grow by 0.4%. However, the core PCE price index likely rose 3.9% year-over-year in August, down from July's 4.2% increase. A marked gap between these indicators could raise fears of a serious recession, as private consumption in the US has a significant impact on the economy, accounting for more than 65% of total GDP. As far as monetary policy is concerned, even if the trend favors the US dollar, inflation data in the eurozone and the US could tip the scales. If US inflation exceeds expectations, this could raise the prospect of a pullback in EUR/USD. Currently, despite the US Dollar's bullish trend, recent unimpressive US macroeconomic data has slowed its upward trajectory. While US GDP growth was in line with market expectations at 2.1%, the GDP Price Index fell from 2% to 1.7%. This indicates that price pressures are easing. However, the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance, backed by comments from officials, maintained a favorable stance for the dollar. 
Thus, with EUR/USD under bearish pressure, market participants are likely to take a cautious stance, especially in light of the upcoming release of the US PCE Core Price Index. The potential impact of this data on the Fed's upcoming policy decisions will be crucial in shaping the demand for the dollar and the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair at the end of the week.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Bands are widening, indicating an increase in volatility. Currently, the price is trading near the upper band, which indicates that the pair is overbought and a possible pullback in the near future. Stochastic is in overbought territory, indicating a possible pullback or reversal. The MACD line is above the signal line, which is a bullish signal and indicates the presence of an upward impulse. However, the values are negative, which indicates a weak impulse. Considering the technical indicators and the current price level, the main scenario would be a potential pullback or consolidation due to the overbought condition shown by the Stochastic and Bollinger Bands.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.05660.
Take Profit: 1.05150.
Stop Loss: 1.05850. 
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.06600.
Take Profit: 1.06970.
Stop loss: 1.06450.