Brent Crude Morning Brief — July 1, 2026
Brent Crude starts the morning session stabilizing at $73.00 after the closing bell finalized oil's sharpest quarterly decline in six years. Intraday price action remains tightly bound, testing immediate support at $72.50 while facing strong overhead technical resistance at $73.80.
Selling pressure followed confirmation from a senior US official that commercial vessels are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz at normal, high-volume capacities amid concrete US-Iran truce expectations. This rapid normalization of shipping lanes led Morgan to slash its price forecasts on warnings of an imminent supply glut. The bearish sentiment is compounded as the scheduled OPEC+ production quota increase of over 1 million bpd officially comes into effect. This physical influx comes on the heels of fresh Kpler data revealing that the UAE cranked its June exports to a record 3.7 million bpd after exiting the cartel on May 1st to maximize individual market share. Adding to the immediate supply weight, Iran's Ghalibaf stated that Tehran successfully exported 40 million barrels over the last two weeks at a 20% premium. However, a concurrent statement from Bessent notes that global buyers outside of China are still approaching these barrels with extreme caution.
Providing an immediate cushion to these declines, the late-session API inventory report printed a massive 6.072 million barrel draw in US crude stocks, significantly deeper than the anticipated 4.05M decline. Further localized downside protection materialized from news that India is actively planning a structural expansion of its strategic crude and LNG reserves to absorb the current market weakness.
Market Outlook: The path of least resistance remains firmly skewed toward the downside for the upcoming sessions. Tactical positioning favors establishing short positions on brief intraday counter-trend moves up toward $73.50. A verified break below the $72.50 support floor will likely accelerate technical selling, opening a direct path toward the $71.80 level.